AS the cost-of-living crisis intensifies, the UK Government appears to be trying to make a bigger noise about helping.
However, in keeping with the style of this Johnson administration, the big talk has nothing behind it and actual assistance remains conspicuous by its absence.
This is a Government which may – given the degree to which it has got away with shirking responsibility for its calamitous Brexit odyssey – have formed the impression the electorate will keep buying the stories it peddles even when the reality is something quite different.
Certainly, it appears that support for the Boris Johnson administration has not been affected materially over a protracted period by the huge damage to the economy and by natural extension living standards caused by the shambolic exit from the European Union.
However, there must surely be an inkling among senior Tories that their luck is running out.
The inflation crisis, while it is obviously being driven by global factors, has been exacerbated by Brexit. Many Brexiters will probably not accept this. In any case, Boris Johnson is undoubtedly now facing a major challenge around the cost-of-living crisis. And, in terms of his inaction, it appears he might be caught in the headlights. That is assuming he wants to do something to help, and we should not take that for granted.
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Differences of opinion appear to have blown up in the Cabinet over whether or not there should be a windfall tax on energy companies, as the Tories continue to flounder amid the crisis. It remains difficult to tell whether a windfall tax will ever actually come to pass, with Mr Johnson having indicated on Monday that this would not be his preference and other senior Tories also having now come out against the idea.
Official data last week showed annual UK consumer prices index inflation surged to nine per cent in April, from 7% in March, its highest since 1982.
The Tories have made much in recent years about how they are all about helping ordinary people.
However, their track record shows this is certainly not the case. The freezing of income tax thresholds for four years effective from last month will be a huge extra burden for ordinary households, especially given rampant inflation. It will mean significant proportions of wage and salary rises, which will likely not be enough in the vast bulk of cases to keep up with inflation anyway, will have to be used to pay increased tax bills.
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If anyone is in any doubt about the extent of this tax grab, they need only look at the Institute for Fiscal Studies’ estimate back in March that this threshold-freezing would bring in £21 billion a year. It had been projected when the freezing was announced in March 2021 that it would bring in £8bn per annum, but that was before inflation ran wild.
The IFS said in March: “When Mr Sunak announced a freeze in income tax thresholds in March 2021, he expected it to raise around £8 billion. Since then, inflation has been much higher, such that under the latest forecasts it could raise as much as £21 billion.”
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This is a phenomenally large tax grab. And it is worth noting the UK inflation picture has deteriorated since March.
Then there has been the entirely inadequate response to the energy price crisis.
There is a huge gulf between the £693 per year or 54% hike in the energy price cap for a typical dual fuel customer, which was announced by regulator Ofgem in February and took effect on April 1, and the paltry support announced by the Government on this front.
The UK Government support amounts to £150 for households qualifying for the council tax reduction measure. There is a £200 “discount” but this has to be paid back over five years, is therefore surely a loan and should not be counted as assistance.
Ofgem chief executive Jonathan Brearley estimated yesterday that the annual price cap for a typical dual fuel customer would rise from £1,971 to around £2,800 from October 1.
Households are also having to deal with a sharp rise in benchmark UK interest rates, albeit from a record low. Base rates have already climbed to 1%, from 0.1% late last year, and the Bank of England has signalled the possibility of further monetary tightening.
In the old days, a rate of 1% would have been inconceivably low. However, with rates having been at extremely low levels ever since the global financial crisis, UK house prices have soared. This surge always looked very problematic, from the viewpoint of economic imbalances as well as the detrimental societal impact of excluding many people, including the young, from the housing market. And, with interest rates now having risen sharply, alarm bells will be ringing for some in terms of repayments.
The Johnson administration, however, seems entirely unable to understand the huge everyday financial pressures now facing millions of households, many of which had already been hit hard by the coronavirus crisis.
The extent to which it is out of touch was perhaps best summed up by comments from safeguarding minister Rachel Maclean about how people could deal with the cost-of-living crisis by working more hours or getting a better-paid job.
She told Sky News: “Over the long term, we need to have a plan to grow the economy and make sure that people are able to protect themselves better – whether that is by taking on more hours or moving to a better-paid job and these are long-term actions but that’s what we’re focused on as a Government.”
Pressed by Sky News’ Kay Burley on evidence that some people were working three jobs but still having to visit food banks, Ms Maclean said: “We have often heard in the past when people are facing problems with their budgets that one of the obstacles – and it may not be for everybody – …is about being able to take on more hours or even move to a better-paid job.”
There are simple steps the UK Government could take swiftly, if it so chose, to ease the cost-of-living burden.
There have been calls for the £20-a-week uplift to universal credit, put in place to help people through the pandemic, to be restored. Obviously, many had called for it not to be taken away in the first place.
However, chief secretary to the Treasury Simon Clarke told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme on Monday: “That [uplift] is not going to return. The question is how we best now look at the next range of solutions to deal with the challenges we’re facing.”
An immediate uplift to universal credit is exactly what the UK Government should be looking at if it is serious about helping people through the cost-of-living crisis. And it would be advantageous not just for struggling households but also for the overall economy, given a boost to welfare spending is the fastest and surest way of bolstering aggregate demand. After all, households which have to use all of their money to live would spend the additional benefits.
Furthermore, people on benefits are already facing a huge squeeze because the uplift in these is lagging inflation. Chancellor Rishi Sunak sparked incredulity last month by claiming that he had been unable to do more on this front in part because of the way the computer system worked.
On the general cost-of-living crisis, Mr Johnson said: “We have got to do what we can – and we will – to look after people through the aftershocks of Covid, through the current pressures on energy prices that we are seeing post-Covid and with what’s going on in Russia.”
He claimed there is “more that we are going to do” but added that people would “just have to wait a little bit longer” to find out.
People do not have time, as household finances are shaken by the worst inflation in 40 years, for the Johnson administration to be dithering and/or doing next to nothing to help.
And, in any case, Mr Johnson’s vague platitudes are very worrying indeed. They indicate an administration which is not only entirely out of touch with everyday realities but which also either does not have a clue about how to address them or has no interest in doing so.
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