If we’ve learned anything over the last two long years, it’s to beware of false dawns. Several times, when we’ve thought we’ve had Covid on the run, it’s returned with reinforcements.
But last week’s announcement that our remaining statutory Covid restrictions will end later this month is a clear signal that, if not vanquished, the virus is at least ready for a truce. Small businesses and self-employed individuals, having endured an incredibly tough, stressful pandemic, will relieved that, in place of business restrictions, we now have a playbook for living with Covid.
But there will be some trepidation there too. As legislation becomes guidance and our focus moves to individual responsibility rather than collective restriction, everyone needs to understand what this means in practice. Certainty is good for business, and with forty six per cent of firms listing the potential for future restrictions as their biggest worry, the clearer we make things, the bigger the boost we’ll see in confidence.
The First Minister has ruled out pre-determined trigger points, in terms of case numbers or hospitalisation rates, for the reimposition of restrictions. That makes sense, as automatically imposing restrictions simply because a particular threshold has been crossed, without regard to the wider context, could give rise to unintended or disproportionate outcomes.
Instead, the strategic framework sets out what sort of measures might be imposed in what circumstances. This should help businesses make contingency plans and thus blunt some of the worst impacts. This would be easier, though, if we also had an idea of how much support businesses could expect to accompany each bracket of measures. Equally, it’s essential that the Scottish Government provides advice to businesses to help them understand the new regime. Business owners are obviously anxious to avoid confusion and potential conflict with staff and customers. Many will wish to create their own “house rules” relating to, for example, mask use and physical distancing. So it’s important that they’re supported to do what they feel is right for their teams and customers and that their rules are respected.
We also need to remember that, while small businesses have shown remarkable resilience, the disruption to staff teams, supply chains and confidence that the pandemic has left in its wake will not simply fall away with the public health restrictions. Neither will the £4 billion emergency debt mountain nor spiralling overheads.
So, just as the direct response to the pandemic over the last couple of years has involved UK, Scottish and local government, the longer-term job of rebuilding the economy also needs to be a team effort. Given what’s happened to our town and city centres, we should focus more of our collective attention on rebuilding from there. And we have the perfect opportunity to debate how we breathe new life into our local places in the next couple of months as we gear up for May’s local government elections. We could, for example, look at how we unlock councils’ not inconsiderable spending power to broaden and strengthen local economies. Local government spends more than £7bn each year buying goods and services. But we know that, on average, less than a third of that spend is with businesses local to the council. Even a small percentage increase could make a real difference locally.
Also, when it’s never been more important to get more people starting and growing businesses, councils can make entrepreneurship less risky by committing to support comprehensive Business Gateway services until the next elections.
The next couple of months are going to be crucial. Local firms proved themselves invaluable in the pandemic, but their contribution to the rebuilding job ahead may turn out to be even more significant.
Colin Borland is director of devolved nations for the Federation of Small Businesses
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