“We are facing a demographic time bomb,” was the statement from a colleague in the rail sector, the best description I’ve heard yet of the challenge which almost every sector in Scotland will recognise.

In fact, it was said in the context of the massive change and opportunity in rail, part of a very constructive conversation for an ever-expanding sector with a few challenging years ahead.

We are a little over one month away from Scotland’s rail passenger service delivery moving to national ownership, as ScotRail will become publicly owned as an “arm’s length” Scottish Government company.

As the first piece of the UK’s rail network to be re-nationalised since privatisation began in 1994, I think it is a reasonably big deal, although not unique.

It took 47 years from nationalisation in 1947 for the see-saw to return to private from national but, more importantly, it arrives during the conversation around the impact of transport which steadfastly remains both Scotland and the UK’s highest emitter, representing 37 per cent of Scotland’s 2017 greenhouse gas emissions (with rail contributing just 1.2% of that).

That conversation is critical to rail, a key enabler to decarbonisation of transport, not only for passengers but increasingly recognised as a game-changer for freight, as even before increased electrification, a tonne of freight moved by diesel rail traction will emit around 76% less carbon than the same goods moved by diesel road. Scotland’s Rail Services Decarbonisation Action Plan aims for the UK’s earliest carbon-free passenger rail, by 2035, to be achieved through electrification of around 1,600 single-track kilometres of the network, plus alternative battery or hydrogen traction for essentially the West Coast and Highland lines.

On the same measure that is around 60% of Scotland’s rail network to upgrade in 13 years, and, as any cautious engineer will happily tell you, that is a lot.

It is also a lot of opportunity for someone, a crystal-clear learning for my Scottish Engineering colleagues leading Scotland’s Rail Cluster Builder, a project jointly funded by Scottish Enterprise and the European Regional Development Fund.

Two things rapidly became apparent, firstly that there is a huge opportunity and desire for the extensive works required around the UK to be more fairly shared around the UK, and especially to connect these opportunities to more small and medium sized companies.

The second is that there are already sizeable numbers of excellent organisations in Scotland quietly getting on with working in the rail sector, with now more than 500 companies registered in our cluster, and almost half of these small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs).

We care dearly about making this connection to SMEs because they represent almost 99.5% of our industry but also bring a source of innovation and diversity of thought that is critical when the size (and cost) of the challenge is as large as decarbonisation.

One example in Scotland is Findlay Irvine, a Midlothian-based SME which designs and manufactures electro-mechanical and software products for transport industries.

Its continuous innovation programme has developed wireless tilt sensors to detect landslides and has recently been successfully trialled at 150 locations across the UK by Network Rail.

Network Rail Scotland are rolling out further across the Scottish network, detecting slope movement of more than five degrees with solar power and battery back-up for resilience in remote locations. The system’s functional design clearly adds to rail safety monitoring of landslips, whilst its innovative approach ensures that it is cost-effective and affordable too.

Lots of opportunity means lots of activity, and leaders in the sector acknowledge that brings a people and skills challenge that is already here – before the size and scale of decarbonisation is delivered.

Returning to our demographic time bomb, a recent report by the UK National Skills Academy for Rail stated 28% of workers in the industry are currently aged over 50, but only 26% of 18 to 24-year-olds say they would consider a career in the industry.

European Union workers in rail dropped from 17% to 15% from 2016 to 2018, and just 16% of the current rail workforce is female with only 24% of women stating they would consider a career in rail.

It is clear there is an immense challenge ahead to recruit the necessary volume of candidates.

Lots of opportunities, and lots of challenges too, including our own (the public) attitudes to rail.

Covid has seen devastating reductions in the number of passengers using the rail network, yet the service continued operation throughout to ensure that essential workers had that transport option, even though our trains were effectively carrying a lot of fresh air.

We just expect rail to be there, take it for granted, and we certainly like to moan when services are reduced, even though pre-Covid only 4% of us used it to commute daily, and only 25% of us used it once or twice a month.

Nationalisation of ScotRail is one of many changes our rail network will undergo in the coming years, and change will rarely be easy, but you would struggle to find a business book that did not agree it is essential and brings opportunity.

Go back to the fact that transport (but certainly not rail) is our biggest greenhouse gas emission, and a decarbonised rail network that more of us actually use looks pretty essential too.

Paul Sheerin is chief executive of Scottish Engineering