Omicron puts international travel back on to the ropes: Ian McConnell

It was only weeks ago that the PCR test requirement was dropped for fully vaccinated people, who were given the option of a much cheaper lateral flow test on arrival or return to Scotland or elsewhere in the UK in what was seen as a huge boost for overseas travel.

The impact on international travel of the reinstatement of the universal PCR test rule and also the requirement for travellers to self-isolate until a negative result is obtained should not be underestimated. These will be major considerations for potential travellers.

That is not to dispute in any way the decisions taken to tighten restrictions at what is another worrying and uncertain stage of this pandemic.

Rather, it is to point out the practical effects of the new measures.

Shares in airlines and travel companies listed on the London stock market, including TUI, easyJet and British Airways owner IAG, opened sharply lower last Friday morning on news of the Omicron variant.

Ten African countries have in recent days been put on the red lists of the UK Government and devolved administrations – requiring mandatory hotel quarantine for arrivals from these nations.

As the world scrambles its resources to deal with the new variant, there is not much visibility at all on what will transpire from here.

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Prime Minister Boris Johnson said at the weekend: “We’re not going to stop people travelling. But we will require anyone who enters the UK to take a PCR test by the end of the second day after their arrival and to self-isolate until they have a negative result.”

The Prime Minister’s office described the measures as “temporary and precautionary…following the emergence of the Omicron variant in the UK”.

It added that the measures would be “reviewed in three weeks”, declaring: “International efforts are now under way to gather as much data and information as possible about this new variant, with more detailed information expected over the next three weeks.”

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the BBC’s Andrew Marr show on Sunday that rules were being introduced “as quickly as possible”, but added: “I think we may need to go further in restricting travel in the days to come. I hope I’m wrong, but we must keep our minds open to that.”

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Ms Sturgeon and Welsh First Minister Mark Drakeford wrote this week to Mr Johnson urging him to extend the self-isolation period for people arriving in the UK from overseas and require another PCR test on day eight.

Of course, where we go from here will depend on what happens next, in this fast-moving situation.

Travel agent industry body ABTA highlighted its understanding that it was a “rapidly evolving situation”, and that public health must come first.

That said, it described the new requirement for PCR tests and self-isolation as a “huge blow” for travel businesses trying to recover from a protracted period of severe restrictions. These restrictions included a ban on non-essential international travel earlier this year for people throughout the UK, which lasted for months.

Responding to the Prime Minister’s announcement of tighter overseas travel rules, ABTA said on Saturday: “While ABTA understands that this is a rapidly evolving situation and public health must come first, the decision to require all arrivals to take a PCR test and self-isolate until a negative result is returned is a huge blow for travel businesses, many of whom were only just starting to get back on their feet after 20 months of severe restrictions.

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“These changes will add cost to people’s holidays which will undoubtedly impact consumer demand and hold back the industry’s recovery, so it’s vital that this decision is kept under careful review and restrictions are lifted promptly if it becomes clear there is not a risk to the UK vaccination programme.”

This seems like a fair and measured response.

ABTA added: “The Government must also now consider offering tailored support for travel businesses, which have been amongst the hardest hit during the pandemic.”

The case for such support is compelling.

Chancellor Rishi Sunak’s decision to end the UK’s coronavirus job retention scheme on September 30 had always looked somewhat premature, certainly for sectors such as international travel hit hardest by the pandemic, even without the situation taking a turn for the worse.

And it was always clear that, were things to become more difficult again for key consumer-facing sectors, the complete end of the furlough scheme would mean there would be a lack of fall-back options immediately available.

Clearly, whatever happens from here more generally, the emergence of the Omicron variant and the measures needed to deal with it have seen things take another lurch for the worse for the international travel sector, at least in the short term.

The travel industry is once again being hit hard by factors outwith its control.

It must receive the government support it needs to deal with this latest blow.

This is in the interests not just of the international travel sector but also of the broader economy, given the importance of preserving employment where it might otherwise be threatened by temporary factors relating to coronavirus.

The sector is a major employer, spanning the likes of travel agents, holiday operators, airlines, and airports and ground-handling operations. And hotels in Scotland and elsewhere in the UK are heavily dependent on overseas travellers.

Providing the necessary support to the UK’s international travel sector will also be crucial to preserving capacity over the longer term. It can thus help ensure overseas travel remains affordable and the connectivity so vital to economic success remains in place to the greatest extent possible.