WATERSHED moments are not always clear at the time but we maybe saw one late last week, in terms of Scotland’s emergence from coronavirus-related restrictions.
This emergence, as in many other places around the world, is proving much more protracted than any of us would like, although it is crucial to remember at all times that the public health measures have been and remain all about saving lives.
In the first two waves of this grim pandemic in the UK, a surge in infection numbers was followed by a horrendous death toll.
There was absolutely no doubt about the need for the hard blanket lockdowns implemented to mitigate the scale of the tragedy, although questions over whether the Johnson Government acted swiftly enough in each case have understandably been in focus.
Thankfully, international vaccine success has given us a route towards normality.
This has not been an easy route. Of course, celebration of vaccine success late last year was followed by misery as the second wave built and by a winter lockdown which will have seemed for many so much longer and more difficult than the initial one put in place as the pandemic took hold last spring.
A rapid rollout of vaccines in the UK (as in some other countries) has, thankfully, changed the arithmetic greatly. However, the path ahead is proving far less straightforward and much more messy than many households and businesses would have hoped, as coronavirus has continued to develop in worrying ways in certain areas.
In Glasgow, hospitality enterprises and businesses in other sectors dependent on footfall have already endured a further grim couple of weeks, with their high hopes of a swifter return to greater normality having been dashed.
As well as remaining in level three, with hospitality operators unable to serve alcohol indoors from May 17 as had been planned previously, businesses in Glasgow have also had to deal with the effects of a travel ban in and out of the local authority area.
Moray also faced a period of greater restrictions but was able to move out of these late last week.
Glasgow remained in level three. And it was easy to understand the frustration of businesses and households, especially given the coronavirus infection rate per 100,000 people in neighbouring East Renfrewshire had last week, albeit briefly, exceeded that in Glasgow.
Marco Giannasi, who owns the landmark Battlefield Rest bistro on the south side of Glasgow with wife Yellena, has displayed commendable stoicism throughout the pandemic. Sometimes he has expressed frustration, often mixed with some humour, while on other occasions his enthusiasm has been uplifting at a time when hope is crucial.
A May 21 tweet from Mr Giannasi was typical of his philosophical approach, and summed up one key challenge for Glasgow’s hospitality sector. The restaurateur observed: “[Giving] the outdoor licence in Scotland is like offering an ice cream to a polar bear!”
He makes a good point, especially given the dismal spring weather we have endured in Scotland this year.
On the same day, raising an issue vexing many businesses in Glasgow, Mr Giannasi tweeted: “I am absolutely shocked to hear that East Renfrewshire remains in level 2 ??? At the moment I have no words left to explain my feelings when 2 miles from us they can trade with an indoor licence and a higher number of cases [than] us?”
Stuart Patrick, chief executive of Glasgow Chamber of Commerce, highlighted the huge problems facing business managers and owners in the local authority area in his column in The Herald this week.
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He flagged particular challenges for city-centre businesses. And he warned of businesses losing between half and four-fifths of the custom they had managed to rebuild, amid the latest restrictions.
Mr Patrick wrote: “There is a palpable sense and an increasingly vocal expression of the injustice Glasgow business owners and managers feel because they are trapped in level three – with local authority travel restrictions increasing the economic damage.
“Many businesses allowed to reopen in late April have seen their trade collapse. It’s not uncommon for individual small businesses to have lost between half and four-fifths of the custom they previously managed to rebuild. Quite simply that is because many Glasgow businesses – especially those in the city centre – are designed to serve a metropolitan economy. When you cut off access from surrounding affluent local authority areas such as East Dunbartonshire and East Renfrewshire, their business model no longer functions.”
Noting that “Glasgow is now one of the very few geographies in the UK that is having to deal with local travel bans”, he hammered home his belief that “there has been no corresponding meaningful adjustment to the financial support affected businesses are receiving”.
Mr Patrick is right to emphasise the challenges and the need for greater financial support when businesses which have reopened are facing a loss of trade on the scale he outlines.
And it is easy for anyone familiar with Glasgow and its surrounding areas to understand the huge impact of the travel ban on businesses.
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It is clear businesses in Glasgow need financial support and not just sympathy as they deal with what will hopefully be a very short-term issue from here (an update on the developing situation is due from the Scottish Government today).
And it is also plain why Glasgow businesses’ dismay when looking across the border to lighter restrictions in East Renfrewshire has been compounded by the ban on travel in and out of their local authority area.
While the original announcement from the Scottish Government two weeks ago that Glasgow was to remain in level three sparked a furious reaction, there seemed to be an acknowledgement from some in the business community at that stage that the late notice had probably arisen from the best of intentions.
It appeared from an external perspective that the Scottish Government had held off in the hope of avoiding having to rule that the previously planned easing of restrictions in Glasgow from May 17, which would have been a hugely important boost to hospitality businesses in particular, could not go ahead.
Ultimately, Glasgow had to remain in level three amid the developing coronavirus situation in the local authority area and the travel ban put the tin lid on things for businesses.
However, without in any way diminishing the scale of the challenges for Glasgow businesses and households, there did seem to be some grounds to view the decision last Friday not to put East Renfrewshire into level three restrictions as a potential positive watershed moment.
There has for so long been an inevitability about a certain infection rate meaning this or that level of restrictions.
The decision on East Renfrewshire in some ways added some confusion to the mix, given its infection rate was temporarily higher than that in Glasgow.
However, as we look to what might happen in weeks and months ahead, it is surely a good thing if a more detailed analysis by public health experts can identify certain specific situations in which tighter restrictions are not required. Such analysis might include looking at vaccination rates, and how and where coronavirus infections are developing as well as their severity or otherwise.
We are in a very different world now to that when the second wave was developing last year, when some lamentably and foolishly tried to claim that hospitalisations and deaths were not at that stage at levels requiring tight restrictions. This looked like a ridiculous argument at the time because there was no reason to believe the situation would be any different to that during the first wave, and the situation was obviously exacerbated by the Kent Covid-19 variant.
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Vaccine development success and rollout has thankfully changed everything in more recent times.
The number of vaccinated people in Scotland and throughout the UK continues to rise fast, and many of the most vulnerable have now received two doses of vaccine. Anecdotal signs of enthusiasm among some 18 to 29-year-olds in Scotland who have now been invited to register for a vaccination to get this done as quickly as possible are also encouraging.
It was interesting to hear comments from Nicola Sturgeon on Tuesday about future decisions on restrictions, which chimed with the impression formed by many last Friday of an evolving approach as the East Renfrewshire decision was announced.
The First Minister talked on Tuesday about how the Scottish Government was “monitoring whether and to what extent vaccination might be breaking that link between rising case numbers and significantly rising cases of serious illness and death”.
She said: “And if that does prove to be the case, as we hope it will, then we hope that our response to this virus can increasingly evolve as well. In short, while care will still be needed because there will always be people who require hospital treatment, it might mean that we don’t have to react quite so aggressively with tough restrictions in the face of rising case numbers.
“Instead, we hope that we’ll be able to rely more on enhanced public health interventions like testing and vaccination, and of course on good public health practices on the part of the public.”
Significant numbers of businesses are planning for a return to some degree of office working during the summer which, if it can be achieved safely, will provide a desperately needed boost to town and city centres.
If more subtle analysis can ward off tougher lockdowns, this will hopefully be for the good of us all, and it may be that Glasgow benefits at some stage from this.
The setbacks are frustrating, but things do look to be moving forward.
And the East Renfrewshire decision, while understandably creating frustration among Glasgow businesses that they could not be in the same level of restrictions as their counterparts across the boundary, looks in a broader context like a very encouraging development.
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