By Ian McConnell
WHAT was striking in the wake of Nicola Sturgeon’s revelation this week of further dates for the easing of coronavirus-related restrictions was the relatively warm welcome her announcement received from major business groups.
Perhaps this was particularly eye-catching given the over-frequent, shrill attempts at point-scoring against the First Minister from her political opponents, mainly but not exclusively Tories north and south of the Border, which have become tiresome but are also utterly inevitable given the proximity of the Scottish Parliament elections. Such is politics.
However, the positive reaction from business did also signal much more harmony than many people might have expected on the coronavirus restrictions front. Especially if they have been exposed to some of the other shrill voices on social media from people at times seemingly incensed by the Scottish Government’s approach to tackling this awful pandemic.
It is not clear what these voices want – at times it seems they are calling for no restrictions and cannot understand the grim basic arithmetic around the spread of coronavirus, hospitalisations and deaths. Lockdowns have, quite rightly, been put in place to save many thousands of lives.
At times, you also get the impression from listening to some people that they believe Boris Johnson has ensured that much more is open in England right now, and there are relatively few restrictions there.
This is not the case. The UK Government, having made big mistakes last summer with an ultimately abandoned drive to get people back into offices and having taken far too long to act on several occasions as infections surged, implemented a full and protracted lockdown south of the Border in early January. This is ongoing. And, though repeatedly too slow to act, it had an extended lockdown in England from November 5 to early December.
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It is clear many people have preferred Ms Sturgeon’s steady approach and cautious, measured tone to the presentational style of Boris Johnson, but significant numbers clearly have not.
Of course, global success in developing coronavirus vaccines and the roll-out of immunisation have given us a route out of this utterly grim situation.
In some ways, the last couple of months have been the toughest, with the end in sight but still looking so far away.
And we should not underestimate the pressures on those who own businesses and the population at large, particularly young people, from the continued lockdown.
At this stage, it might seem to some that a couple of weeks of difference in the dates set out by the Scottish Government for key moves out of lockdown, relative to the earliest possible timescales set out for England by the Prime Minister, constitutes an eternity.
In the context of Ms Sturgeon’s announcement this week, the frustrations of some people in those sectors towards the back of the queue for reopening or for which protracted restrictions have been signalled after they do start trading again, such as pub and nightclub entrepreneurs, are understandable. And it will be crucial these businesses receive continued government support until they can return to normality.
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However, it is important to get the emergence from the current onerous restrictions right, crucially in terms of saving lives but also to avoid further spikes in infections tipping us back into lockdown. Over the piece, it will be in the best interests of businesses and the population at large if the path out of lockdown on which we are embarking is a steady one, with no looking back.
Suppressing the virus and economic health, as nations such as Taiwan have shown, go hand in hand. Taiwan was successful in shutting down at the outset. The UK’s coronavirus death rate is grim but international success in vaccine development has provided a route out of the crisis.
The Scottish Retail Consortium has been among business organisations which have not minced their words as they have communicated the frustrations of their members at various stages of the coronavirus pandemic.
However, the SRC was also direct in its welcoming this week of confirmation from Ms Sturgeon of an indicative date of April 26 for the reopening of non-essential shops.
It noted that, following its representations, the list of essential retailers would be expanded to include garden centres as well as homeware stores, meaning both could resume trading on April 5.
SRC director David Lonsdale declared: “Credit is due to government for listening to the representations from retail. This announcement provides much-needed certainty to the industry, and it’s welcome to see moves to unwind a number of the elevated lockdown restrictions which were implemented at the turn of the year.
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“The easing of these restrictions is good news for shoppers and the economy. It should provide a cashflow and confidence fillip for the retailers concerned and their suppliers. Now that we know which shops can open and when, retailers can begin communicating their plans with their workforces, suppliers and customers.”
Mr Lonsdale added that the further financial support announced for shuttered shops will “also be hugely valuable for businesses currently cut off from customers and for the health of our high streets”.
The Scottish Government on Tuesday announced “re-start” grants of up to £7,500 for retailers and up to £19,500 for hospitality and leisure businesses would be paid in April to “help businesses re-open progressively”.
Mr Lonsdale did declare that continuation of curbs on food-to-go takeaway, which mean customers have to collect at the door, “rankles a little bit”, but he added: “At least these stores now have an indicative date at the end of April to resume welcoming customers for walk-in takeaway.”
Tracy Black, director of the Confederation of British Industry in Scotland, also used the “welcome” word in her response to the First Minister’s announcement, although she did also flag a view that there would be challenges if Scottish restrictions were tougher than those in other parts of the UK.
Ms Black said: “The announcement of indicative dates for reopening some of Scotland’s hardest-hit sectors provides a welcome steer for a business community that has been starved of hope for too long. Having already lost out on festive trading, hospitality, leisure and non-essential retail firms will be looking to the weeks ahead with cautious optimism.
“While tentative steps out of lockdown will be a boost for business, we’re still some way off turning the page on the pandemic. Level three restrictions remain tough, especially if diverging from elsewhere in the UK, and a lag in demand will make trading conditions difficult for some time.”
It remains to be seen what happens in terms of specific divergence.
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Ms Black also highlighted the need for adequate further government support to help businesses through coming months. This is something that will be essential, regardless of exactly how things develop.
Given where the main tax-raising powers lie, it will be crucial for the UK Government to put up sufficient money on this front.
Ms Black said: “Government support has provided a lifeline during an unprecedented 12 months but, with firms low on cash, confidence and demand, further support is needed. Re-start grants will offer flexibility and help cushion firms during a precarious re-start phase where jobs and livelihoods remain in the balance.
“A big effort is needed from both the Scottish and UK governments over the summer to support business and economic growth across the country.”
The Federation of Small Businesses also declared that it welcomed the new detail on dates “for the lifting of most coronavirus restrictions in Scotland, including those related to independent shops, hospitality enterprises and hairdressers”.
Andrew McRae, the FSB’s Scotland policy chair, said on Tuesday: “The tone and content of [the] statement will give many independent and local businesses across Scotland increased confidence. These indicative dates allow many firms to plan ahead and the restrained optimism from the First Minister may encourage some small businesses not to throw in the towel.”
However, the FSB warned “the survival of many local firms is still in doubt”, and Mr McRae declared: “The crisis is nowhere near finished for thousands of important local Scottish firms.”
This is not mere lobbying – it is simple truth.
Mr McRae declared that “new Scottish Government re-start grants are incredibly welcome” but added: “That can’t be the end of efforts to help independent operators both make it to the summer and eventually recover from this crisis. While we should cheer the prospect of the end of lockdown, we need more action to help our local businesses deal with its long-term consequences.”
The weeks through to late April and early May, when we might be able to enjoy conditions closer to normality, will seem long for many people.
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However, it is crucial Mr McRae’s point about the much longer struggle ahead for small businesses is taken on board.
The same applies when it comes to supporting the hundreds of thousands of people in the UK who have lost their jobs amid the pandemic.
It is essential, with so much having been thrown at trying to mitigate the long-term damage from the pandemic, that the businesses and households hit hardest by the economic fall-out are provided with sufficient financial support to enable them to get back on to the front foot. This is obviously crucial from a societal perspective but also holds the key to mitigating the longer-term economic damage.
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