The UK Budget last week was well judged in that it committed the necessary resources to provide support to the economy as it recovers from the Covid lockdown and starts the process of raising taxation in the longer run to address the nation’s debt problem.
Companies will pay significantly higher tax. Individuals will pay more tax as their income rises.
For one Budget to have gone further would have been unwise but there are three key challenges which remain to be dealt with and cannot be left unaddressed for much longer.
First, the financial problem is not fixed. The Office for Budget Responsibility’s figures indicate that national debt will continue to rise throughout this Parliament. The politicians have their fingers crossed that growth in the economy will allow debt to fall as a proportion of national income from 2023/24 but that reduction is neither certain nor swift and it leaves the absolute level of debt relative to the size of our economy at a very high level.
This matters because it leaves us vulnerable to an unexpected shock. That shock could be a material rise in interest rates, another pandemic or something we have not yet even considered.
The point is that at current levels of debt we have lost our resilience and we need to get it back in order to cope with the next crisis. Absolute levels of debt need to come down.
Second, we are in the foothills of a profound change in the demographic make-up of the UK.
The proportion of our population who are elderly is starting to rise rapidly and this will within a few years put enormous additional strain on our health and, even more so, our social care services. Without significant extra resources our social care system will collapse as an effective safety net for our citizens.
Third, the unfairness within our society needs to be tackled. Those who have been privileged – the baby-boomer generation, those with final salary pension schemes, people lucky enough to have investment portfolios buoyed up by quantitative easing, homeowners and ratepayers in the south of England – simply must pay more into the collective pot.
We owe it to the young, those on low wages bringing up families, those who can only dream of owning their own home, to rebalance things in their favour.
There are too many dividing lines for a healthy economy and society. Fairness is always so difficult to define but we can feel when we don’t have it. We are going to have to pluck up the courage to address entrenched advantage so that the UK can come back together and believe in itself again.
Scotland leaving the UK makes no sense economically and would harm most those who could afford it least. What feeds the desire for separation is not economics but a feeling of being ignored, disadvantaged, the afterthought of governments who think about south-east England because that is where they are from and understand.
Politicians must lead us in the right direction and we as voters must have the sense to follow them even when it is uncomfortable.
Final salary public sector pension schemes need to stop; those who have built up housing wealth need to pay some of it in tax; unproductive wealth needs to be taxed every year and whenever it is given away but at a much lower rate than 40% ; income tax rates need to be reduced for all except those with the highest incomes; capital gains tax on share portfolios, second homes and private equity carried interests must go up. The machinery of UK Government and location of its decision-making needs to be spread throughout the UK.
Delaying the day when we really tackle these difficult issues cannot go on much longer.
Guy Stenhouse is a Scottish financial sector veteran who wrote formerly as Pinstripe
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules here