Brexit: Ian McConnell: Yawning chasm between chaotic reality and Brexiters’ fantasy as price of foolish crusade racks up: Opinion

Given the business organisations seem to be hoping Minister for the Cabinet Office Michael Gove might help sort out the raft of problems, it was perhaps not surprising that their tone was measured.

However, setting aside tone, the content of their statement late last week laid out plainly the scale and broad-reaching nature of the challenges. It was difficult not to perceive an underlying tone of exasperation or at least weariness.

And a stark warning was sounded this week by Richard Burnett, chief executive of the Road Haulage Association, in a letter to Mr Gove. Mr Burnett flagged a slump in loads being sent to the European Union amid major, well-documented problems for exporters.

He said: “Intelligence we are collecting on an ongoing basis from international hauliers suggests that loads to the EU have reduced by as much as 68 per cent which can also be evidenced by the increased number of empty trailers which are not currently considered in the statistics being provided by the ferry and channel crossing providers. As a result, there is a misconception that trade flows are greater than they are.”

In terms of Brexiter fantasies and global pretensions, we had the reheating over the weekend of the UK Government’s current favourite grand plan on the international trading front. The Boris Johnson administration has made a lot of noise in recent times about its desire to join the Trans-Pacific Partnership on the other side of the world. Having just given up the benefits of frictionless trade with members of the world’s largest free trade bloc, which happens to be on its doorstep.

So what was the justification for the reheating of this hoary old TPP chestnut?

It was the trumpeting of the UK’s formal application to join the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership.

This coincided, not surprisingly, with the first anniversary of the UK’s technical Brexit, the effects of which were of course delayed until December 31 by a transition period which allowed the country to retain its valuable single-market membership.

Liz Truss has made much of the UK attempt to join the distant Trans-Pacific Partnership in the wake of Brexit Picture: Stefan Rousseau/PA Wire

Since the year-end, of course, we have seen with absolute clarity the huge downside of losing frictionless trade. We will continue to see this over the years and decades ahead, along with the damage to the economy and living standards from the loss of free movement of people to and from EU countries and the associated Tory clampdown on immigration.

Scotland’s seafood sector is among those which continue to bear the immediate brunt of the post-Brexit shambles, but it is far from alone.

The song and dance around the TPP gave Secretary of State for International Trade Liz Truss a platform on which to wax lyrical about what she sees as the benefits of such an alliance. There was also talk of UK Government hope that TPP membership could enable a back-door route to closer ties with the US. If the US were to join. If this is the Tory Government hope, it looks somewhat desperate.

The UK was of course pursuing a trade deal with the US when Donald Trump was president. It remains to be seen where these attempts go with Joe Biden’s administration. This was previously the great hope proclaimed by the Brexiter-packed Cabinet on the trade and economic front, although the Johnson administration’s own figures showed any benefits would be minuscule relative to what the UK has lost by leaving the European single market.

It is worth rehearsing again the figures around this, given a seeming continuing lack of understanding of what is going on in some quarters. You could be forgiven for thinking the Government spin means that it does not get the realities, although we must not forget that Brexit was driven by ideology. It could not, after all, have been driven by any rational economic considerations.

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The much-vaunted free trade deal the Conservative Government has been wanting to do with the US would, according to the Johnson administration’s forecasts, add 0.16% at most to UK gross domestic product on a 15-year horizon.

The Theresa May Government forecasts from November 2018 showed Brexit would, with an average free trade deal with the EU, result in UK GDP in 15 years’ time being 4.9% lower than if the country had stayed in the bloc if there were no change to migration arrangements. Or 6.7% worse on the basis of zero-net inflow of workers from European Economic Area countries. As already mentioned, the Tories have since clamped down on immigration, to the apparent delight of Home Secretary Priti Patel.

What is most fascinating about the UK Government’s excitement over the weekend about its TPP drive is that it was not accompanied by any economic forecasts at all.

Boris Johnson Picture: Toby Melville/ PA

The Prime Minister talked about trading with “old friends” on the other side of the world, as the Conservative Government continued to give a very good impression of wanting to cosy up to anyone but the EU.

However, given what the projections for the US deal were, you would not imagine the TPP could possibly make much of a difference in the context of the huge damage inflicted by the UK Government with its decision to leave the European single market.

There is much talk of how Brexit has been done and we should move on. The foolish deed has been done. However, surely a government, in any context, must be answerable for the negative consequences of its actions.

Former prime minister David Cameron was of course the man who paved the way for the shambles we see now by deciding to have a referendum on EU membership in the first place.

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After an extremely narrow victory for the Brexiters, the May and then Johnson administrations decided the form of departure those who voted for Leave wanted was one that entailed leaving the single market and customs union.

And then Mr Johnson negotiated, and delivered, a hard Brexit.

It is particularly galling to view all this from a Scottish perspective, given a big majority north of the Border preferred to remain in the EU. And, of course, Scotland’s economy will suffer particularly from the Tory clampdown on immigration from EU countries, given demographic factors.

Meanwhile, businesses throughout the UK continue to battle with the consequences of Mr Johnson’s hard Brexit.

Of course, the UK Government has had to refocus its attention closer to home, following its TPP outpourings over the weekend, with the worrying developments at Northern Irish ports arising from Brexit.

The troubles for businesses and households are, of course, far broader than this.

Theresa May Picture: Jonathan Brady/PA

Businesses’ woes on the EU trade front are spelled out well in the joint statement last week from the “B5” group, comprising the British Chambers of Commerce, Confederation of British Industry, Federation of Small Businesses, Institute of Directors, and Make UK.

The B5 said: “We were pleased to have the opportunity to set out to Government the range and scale of the challenges our members are facing across the country as they seek to understand and adapt to the new requirements for doing business with the EU and Northern Ireland.

“A range of problems were discussed, including the substantial difficulties faced by firms adapting to the new customs processes, sizeable obstacles to moving goods through the Dover-Calais route and the shortage of informed advice from both Government and specialist advisers alongside a number of others.”

The B5 added: “It was recognised by all parties that the level of activity remained low post-Christmas and that further problems might appear as volumes begin to increase once stockpiled supplies were exhausted. Concerns were also raised on further disruption to trade flows when grace periods fall away in the coming months.”

That is quite a list of issues.

And that was not all.

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Noting the key services sector’s exclusion from the post-Brexit deal between the UK and EU, the B5 declared: “Turning to cross-border trade in services, attendees stressed the importance for Government to make good on the deal’s provision for mutual recognition of professional qualifications, data adequacy and continued co-operation on financial services.”

The statement paints a picture of misery for lots of individual businesses already, with the potential for things to get much worse.

The B5, politely, notes “these points were acknowledged and responded to positively by Mr Gove”.

It added: “A range of solutions were discussed, including the provision of transition vouchers to help smaller businesses access the advice they need, an injection of effort into the training of customs agents and a wider measure of business support activity to ensure these challenges are overcome and do not lead to a significant reduction of business across borders with the EU, at various ports and crossings around GB, as well the NI/Ireland border.”

This range of potential “solutions” also highlights the degree of the short-term mess, which we must remember will be followed by the relentless economic damage of Brexit over years and decades.

You really do wonder if any of the Brexiters in the Cabinet ever wonder why they inflicted all this woe on businesses and households, especially given the struggles faced amid the coronavirus pandemic. They probably do not. But they really should take a good look at what is going on, and think how they might at least mitigate the damage they have caused with their actions.