By Jeremy Peat

Having been born in March 1945 I grew up under the shadow of World War 2, and even as a youngster was only too aware of the continuing tensions within Europe and the risks that these imposed on peace and prosperity in that continent and indeed globally.

I have never been able to fully comprehend the anti-European sentiment that flourishes in the UK – primarily but not exclusively in England.

This appeared to emanate from both right and left wings of politics and has endured for decades, casting its unwelcome shadow over the UK’s belated efforts to participate in the great European adventure that was the EEC and begat the EU and then the euro.

The "victory" of Leave in the referendum came as a most unwelcome shock, and I will never forget the extent to which this was founded upon lies and fabrications and who was responsible for their promulgation.

Now we have left and must look forward rather than back. There is no doubt that departure, even with this deal, will result in marked economic costs. But the positive slant is that it is not "No Deal"; there will not be tariffs or quotas on goods – albeit we do not know the position for our key services sectors and there will be significant costs due to the much enhanced bureaucracy as goods cross our borders in both directions.

So we face a problematic scenario on the Brexit front, but by no means the worst case scenario that remained a possibility right up to Christmas Eve.

We should not thank the PM for the deal he has delivered, just be grateful that even under his shambolic "leadership" at least a continuation of free trade in goods was achieved.

So now we have three key positives to help us look forward into 2021 with a modest degree of optimism.

First Donald Trump will depart within days and the world can look forward to a much less malign presence at the White House. This has to be good news for global economic prospects, which will depend so much on the relationship between the present economic superpower (the US) and its designated successor by the end of this decade (China).

Second, we have avoided the devastating consequences of a No Deal Brexit and must now make the best of what we have.

And third we have two vaccines approved to protect us against Covid, including – it would appear – the fast-spreading new variant.

The social and medical impacts of Covid will be with us for several months into 2021. We can but hope that life is returning to some semblance of normality as we enter spring.

Unfortunately the economic impact of this pandemic will last significantly longer, even if (quite a big if, my medical friends tell me) the disease per se is in full retreat as spring turns to summer.

The first months of the New Year will be problematic for many, with unemployment continuing to rise and many businesses finding it impossible to cope with yet another period of all-encompassing lockdown.

Once more many businesses and individuals will be dependent upon Government support – from Whitehall and/or Holyrood.

Now must not be the time for Governments to temper their very necessary generosity of support.

The emphasis has to be on continuing stringent lockdown measures while the vaccine rollout accelerates, and maintaining Government courage and support until it is safe for activity across the economy to be opened up once more. Opening up too early would be a disaster; clawing back support too early would be a tragedy.

This will be tough for the UK Chancellor and his counterparts in other economies.

The scale of the gaps between Government revenue and expenditure is mind blowing. The levels of Government debt are beyond anything ever before in peacetime.

Nevertheless, we must not allow the word "austerity" to return to our economic lexicon. The ghost of George Osborne is as much to be feared as the ghost of Jacob Marley at the time of Dickens!

The economic impact will be with us well beyond the end of the pandemic. At its simplest, GDP will not be back to the pre-pandemic peak for a couple of years, even if we are successful with economic management.

Given both Covid and Brexit our economic output, and hence household prosperity, will – even with a fair wind – take a decade or more to return to where it might have been without these two gigantic shocks.

Whilst struggling to avoid excessive business failure and secure as rapid an output bounce back as feasible, there will be other huge challenges to face.

The rise in unemployment must be limited and new job creation must be prioritised, alongside skill re-generation for many losing their livelihoods during the past year.

Boris Johnson has started talking about "levelling up". We must hope that he has some idea what that means, and is prepared to impose costs on those at the top ends of the wealth and income distributions as a necessary part of that process.

Then we have the necessity of dealing with the rapidly-accelerating risks associated with global warming; and also of the hope that the affluent countries of the world do not forget the plight of poorer nations, now further damaged by this all-encompassing pandemic.

That sounds like enough challenges for now.

But do recall how much worse matters would look if Trump had won a second term; if no vaccine had been found for many moons yet; and if the Europeans had allowed Boris, Gove and the like to "lead" us into a No Deal Brexit.

These are mercies to be grateful for, and by no means small mercies.