Analysis

By s1jobs

 

With the outlook for employment in the UK the weakest anywhere in Europe, it seems that the future of some six million jobs in the retail and hospitality sectors is very much pinned to the swift success of the mass vaccination programme that got underway last week.

The recent downfall of major chains such as Debenhams and those owned by Phil Green’s Arcadia Group make it difficult to pinpoint exactly how many of those jobs still exist at this moment. Likewise, the dust from the collapse of the hospitality trade will not begin to settle until some time next year, once business owners have had a chance to assess the impact of a festive season that failed to claw back any of the massive losses from the previous eight months of little to no trade.

The high degree to which the UK and Scottish economies rely on the service sector has been cited as one of the main reasons why recovery prospects here are particularly grim compared to those of other nations. Add to that the UK’s forthcoming exit from the European trading bloc – now just 18 days away, with little clarity on what that will look like – and the lack of optimism from British businesses is hardly surprising.

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The threat of a new year surge in job losses was highlighted by the latest ManpowerGroup employment outlook survey, which found that the chances of finding a job in retail and hospitality are now worse than during the first nationwide lockdown in the spring.

Across all sectors, there are more employers planning to shed jobs than hire new staff during the first three months of 2021. ManpowerGroup found that the UK’s net employment outlook stands at minus 6 per cent for the first quarter of 2021, an improvement from a low of -12% earlier this year, but still easily the worst among the 24 countries surveyed. By comparison, Germany’s score was +8% and France’s was zero.

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The relative improvement in the UK has been driven by employers in sectors such as finance, business and construction, who have found it easier to bounce back from the fall-out of Covid. Even so, just 49% of UK employers expect their hiring to return to pre-pandemic levels in the year ahead.

Many who are desperately seeking work will have to turn to new sectors, regardless of how quickly order is restored. Inoculations will likely inject some optimism into the market, but the logistical challenges of the vaccination programme mean that a measure of normality is still some way off.