Figures fail to disguise the need for superior strategy to stave off further job losses

Though bad, the unemployment picture in Scotland has so far not been as catastrophic as was reasonably feared. Official figures from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show the country’s unemployment rate remained steady at 4.5 per cent this quarter, the same as in Q2, in contrast to the UK rate which rose to 4.8%.

Various government interventions to support businesses and employment, not least the job retention scheme, have allowed many employers to retain staff in Scotland. The eleventh-hour decision to extend this key subsidy – which was due to close at the end of October – to March of next year will bring some limited seasonal cheer, particularly to those in the beleaguered leisure and hospitality sectors.

But delaying this decision until the last minute inevitably forced the hand of those employers who are required to undertake statutory redundancy consultations, which must start at least 30 days before any dismissals take effect. By the time the Chancellor announced his reprieve at the end of October, those consultations were already coming to a close.

The number of employees in Scotland fell by a total of 71,000 from March to October, a decline of 3% on the same period a year earlier. Although hugely distressing for the individuals involved, this again is a relatively modest number compared to what might have been.

In terms of new employment these people might find, September continued the positive trend of month-on-month increases in job vacancies in Scotland since the 73% crash recorded in April. Indeed, a 21% rise in August through September saw Scotland outperform the rest of the UK on this metric.

While the steady increase in vacancies will be welcome news for many, certain sectors and job candidates have been more adversely affected than others by the restrictions placed on UK businesses, such as those in effect across central Scotland these past several weeks. October saw a slight decline of 8% in vacancies from the September high, and this past week we have witnessed a further fair downturn in vacancies being posted.

Part of this is a normal trend witnessed every year as job vacancies decline moving into the winter months. But there is little doubt this seasonal variation has been exacerbated by tighter controls on trade and movement.

Scotland’s nascent five tier system is a well-intentioned attempt to create flexibility to deal with rising infection levels on a more local level, allowing greater freedom in those areas where it’s safe to do so. However, the flip-flop nature of a system of weekly reviews does not establish the stability that employers require to make investment and hiring decisions, particularly as we go into the headwinds of Brexit.

With the threat of a double-dip recession on the horizon, what’s needed to avoid future large-scale redundancies is a clear and co-ordinated route out of rolling lockdowns. Such a plan should hope for the best in relation to the eventual roll-out of a vaccine, but acknowledge that even in the best-case scenario, we will be living with Covid-19 unchecked for at least several months to come.

Gavin Mochan is Commercial Director at s1jobs