AS Boris Johnson continues to act the goat over Brexit, with his Hallowe’en no-deal threats, the economic damage to Scotland and the rest of the UK piles up alarmingly.
Not that there is any danger of this sorry situation taking the wind out of Mr Johnson’s sails, of course. He and his adviser, Dominic Cummings, seem to be rather enjoying the drama they are creating, as their behaviour fuels fears of a no-deal Brexit among millions of households and many, many thousands of businesses.
Their irritating“Get Brexit Done” slogan certainly sums up rather well the total of what they are all about. However, given that many arch-Brexiters seem to have given up trying to dispute the sad facts that the Brexit folly has already caused huge damage to the UK economy and that there will be much worse to come on this front, they should probably add “whatever the cost”.
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It has in recent weeks, since Mr Johnson’s ascension to Prime Minister, been all about throwing billions of pounds at no-deal Brexit planning, stockpiling medicines among other things. The big talk about huge new trade deals from the Brexiters in the immediate wake of the summer 2016 vote has quietened right down. This is no surprise, given the Brexiters’ abject failure to deliver anything other than hot air on this front.
Mr Johnson has already made it plain that real-life, grown-up consequences of a no-deal or otherwise hard Brexit for the economy and society will not stop his drive for the UK to leave the European Union by Hallowe’en. This is an absurd approach.
In any case, many arch-Brexiters do not really seem to care at all about the horror show that will follow for the economy, living standards and society over years and decades if the UK leaves the European single market. They seem to just not feel British enough as part of the EU, and appear to need this perceived inadequacy addressed by hook or by crook.
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A video last week showing Mr Cummings’ “get Brexit done” reaction to Karl Turner – when the Labour MP told Mr Johnson’s adviser of “death threats overnight” – will not have settled jangled nerves in the business community or in Remain-minded households. Mr Johnson’s ramping up of his Brexit bombast to a dangerous and difficult-to-bear volume and intensity has provided further reason for dismay.
The Prime Minister declared on Wednesday that there should be “no doubt” that the only alternative to the supposed Brexit agreement “compromise” he has now put to the EU, four weeks ahead of Hallowe’en, would be no-deal. This kind of comment should absolutely send shivers down the spine. Such justified fears will bear down on spending and investment by businesses and households with an awareness of the realities of Brexit, and on economic activity. And things will get much, much worse if Mr Johnson drives through a no-deal exit.
Hopefully Parliament, which has done a great job of reining in Messrs Johnson and Cummings so far, will have other ideas, and will succeed in its endeavours to look out for the good of the country.
In the real world, the cost of the Brexit folly, even before we get to the exit, mounts relentlessly.
Mr Johnson banged on at the Conservative Party conference on Wednesday about “wreckage” that he claimed had been left behind by Labour in 2010. Maybe he was referring to the wreckage left by the global financial crisis? That’s right – global. Nothing to do with Labour. And the notion that the Tories would have regulated the UK financial sector to a greater degree than Labour remains utterly laughable. There was only passing reference to trade deals in Mr Johnson’s speech. He declared categorically that these would happen – crucially without specifics. He did not explain why he saw future success on this front, after three years of no obvious progress.
The Tories’ record on the economy is grim. Nearly a decade of disappointment, with weak growth and even at times contraction, as they have delivered misery to millions of people and hampered the economy so spectacularly with their grinding austerity and visited their Brexit foolishness on the UK.
A survey this week showed UK manufacturing activity continued to fall in September amid Brexit woe, fuelling fears that the sector may be sliding into recession, with companies cutting staffing at the fastest pace since February 2013. The Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply survey signals manufacturing activity has fallen for five straight months – its longest run of decline since mid-2009 on CIPS’s measure.
UK construction output tumbled last month at the second-fastest pace since April 2009, a separate survey from CIPS has shown. Construction employment tumbled at the fastest pace since December 2010. Joe Hayes, economist at survey compiler IHS Markit, warned: “Activity is being pulled down at its second-fastest clip for over a decade as firms are buffeted by client hesitancy, heightened Brexit uncertainty and a weak outlook for the UK economy.”
Another CIPS survey yesterday showed renewed contraction of the key services sector. For only the fifth time in more than a decade, CIPS’s monthly services business activity index was below the 50 no-change mark, and employment in the sector fell at its fastest pace in nine years.
A Confederation of British Industry survey signalled a slump in total and export order books for UK manufacturers last month. Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club think-tank, warned that “extremely gloomy” UK manufacturers were being hampered by Brexit and were struggling amid soft domestic and overseas demand.
A survey by the University of Strathclyde’s Fraser of Allander Institute in conjunction with law firm Addleshaw Goddard, published last week, showed around three in 10 Scottish businesses have scaled back new investment because of Brexit uncertainty.
Scotland seems to be occupying a sizeable amount of Mr Johnson’s attention in terms of his seeming desire to stir the pot on the independence question. But the economic challenges being faced by Scotland because of the Brexit shambles – troubles mirrored across the UK – do not appear to be occupying his time as he goes for populism. That is a real pity because his October 31 Brexit drive, “do or die”, has made an already major mess a whole lot worse.
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