UK retail sales volumes have fallen at the fastest year-on-year pace since autumn 2017 in recent weeks, as Brexit uncertainty continues to dominate, a key survey shows.
Sales volumes have failed to show year-on-year growth in four consecutive months, according to the survey published yesterday by the Confederation of British Industry.
With 46 per cent of retailers reporting a year-on-year fall in sales volumes and 28% posting a rise in the latest survey, a balance of 18% experienced a decline. In January and February, sales volumes had been flat compared with the same months of 2018, following a sharp year-on-year fall in December.
Retailers also signalled a sharp year-on-year fall in orders placed with suppliers, amid the Brexit uncertainty.
Of those surveyed between February 26 and March 18, 37% reported a year-on-year decline in orders placed, while only 24% reported a rise.
The CBI cited the possibility that April sales might be boosted by Easter falling later this year.
Anna Leach, CBI head of economic intelligence, said: “Even accounting for Easter timing, the high street’s poor run continues. While real wage growth is picking up, consumer confidence has been hit by escalating uncertainty over Brexit and concern over the economy’s future. No-deal must be averted at all costs.”
The hardware and do-it-yourself, and recreational goods categories saw particularly sharp year-on-year falls in sales volumes, according to the CBI survey. Furniture and carpet retailers and specialist food and drink stores also saw sharp overall year-on-year falls in sales.
Howard Archer, chief economic adviser to the EY ITEM Club think-tank, said: “The weak CBI survey reinforces the suspicion that March will be a difficult month for the economy amid heightened Brexit uncertainty…Retailers may be concerned that cautious consumers will limit their spending in the near term at least due to the heightened Brexit uncertainties.”
Mr Archer added: “It is possible that the weak March CBI survey reflects heightened caution among consumers as Brexit uncertainties increased. [IHS] Markit’s UK household finance survey showed consumers’ willingness to make major purchases fell sharply.”
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