IS anyone else sick to the back teeth of Brexiters dismissing any and all rational analysis of the UK’s grisly, self-made predicament as scaremongering?
As well as being utterly frustrating and incredible, it is also terrifying that the Brexiters continue to spout their nonsense about everything being just fine in the wake of the UK’s departure from the European Union. They try to paint a picture of everything being rosy even under the most extreme hard-Brexit scenario. Their empty rhetoric usually also includes a bit about the will of the people, and is often accompanied by lashings of patriotic guff about the British bulldog spirit and an ability to overcome adversity.
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It does seem, in many cases, as if there is almost a desire for some more adversity to overcome, even on the part of those mixed-up individuals who are also insisting things will be great.
From a Scottish perspective, it is difficult to see just what is fuelling this attitude. In some, but it is important to emphasise not all, cases, there is either express or implied anti-immigration sentiment from such individuals. And, for some Brexiters, a crisis of English national identity or some kind of determination to pursue English nationalism also appears to be playing a part in the bizarre refusal to accept the economic and social reality of the predicament in which the UK finds itself.
It is also difficult to shake off a feeling of irritation when you hear some people saying that no one has any idea what Brexit will bring. This vacuous observation is sometimes advanced as a reason why warnings of grim times ahead should be ignored.
Deep thought seems to be in short supply among some of the noisiest Brexiters. However, it does not take much deep thought to recognise the varying degrees of damage to the economy, living standards and society from the different forms of Brexit. Even the UK Government’s own forecasts show the country will be worse off than otherwise with any form of Brexit.
The Bank of England has highlighted the potential for a recession even deeper than that triggered by the global financial crisis more than a decade ago in the event of a no-deal Brexit. Bank Governor Mark Carney warned again yesterday of the consequences of a no-deal exit.
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And then, of course, there is the mountain of evidence of the damage already done to the UK economy by the Brexit vote and its sorry aftermath. Mr Carney yesterday highlighted the impact of the “fog of Brexit” on household confidence and business investment.
A survey published yesterday by Scottish Chambers of Commerce shows the Brexit farce is taking a heavy toll on the economy north of the Border. It is worth remembering that the Scottish electorate preferred, by a big margin, to remain in the EU but is having to pay the same price as people everywhere else in the UK for this folly. That price is already high.
Scottish Chambers’ survey shows manufacturers experienced their sharpest fall in confidence since 2012 in the fourth quarter of last year, as their orders fell and they cut back on staffing and investment amid pervasive Brexit uncertainty.
The overall UK economic performance has been far more dismal in the wake of the Brexit vote than it was before. And it was far from any great shakes before, with the Conservatives’ grinding austerity programme having choked growth since 2010.
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The latest surveys of the UK manufacturing, construction and services sectors, published in recent days by the Chartered Institute of Procurement & Supply, signal the economy as a whole broadly stagnated at the start of 2019 as fears of a no-deal Brexit continued to swirl.
UK services companies recorded the first monthly fall in their overall workforce for more than six years in January as they experienced their first decline in new orders since July 2016, in the immediate aftermath of the Brexit vote. Companies cited delays to projects caused by Brexit uncertainty. Meanwhile, UK manufacturers recorded an overall monthly reduction in staffing for only the second time since mid-2016 in January, as production volumes rose at the weakest pace in two-and-a-half years. Manufacturers last month stockpiled inputs at the fastest pace since comparable records began 27 years ago, amid no-deal Brexit fears.
UK construction growth slowed in January to its weakest in 10 months.
A survey published this week by Henderson Loggie, in conjunction with the MHA network of accountancy firms and Bank of Scotland, shows 57 per cent of Scottish manufacturers believe uncertainty over future trading tariffs could be a barrier to growth, as Brexit looms. This is up from 22% in 2017. And 55% reported difficulty in recruiting employees with relevant skills – a situation likely to become a whole lot worse with Brexit.
Unless Brexit is prevented, the cost yet to come will be far greater than that incurred already. This will materialise either through a long, grinding negative effect of leaving with a deal which places the UK on a far-worse footing than it is on at the moment, or through a sudden painful economic downturn followed by further corrosive damage over the ensuing years and decades.
Yet the Brexiters remain at least as determined as ever to leave. It is almost as if they become even more hell-bent on pursuing the path, not less, as evidence of the damage it will cause piles up dramatically.
Not only do Brexiters continue to pursue their ideologically driven dream of leaving the EU, they have the brass neck to accuse those who dare to highlight the consequences of "scaremongering". They even sometimes brand those who would dare to proclaim the lack of anything behind the Brexiters' bluster (like the boy who observes the Emperor has no clothes in Hans Christian Andersen’s tale) as traitors.
Time is running out. The economic indicators highlight the huge damage already done. They are also harbingers of what is to come, backing up the considered forecasts of the Bank of England and others.
We are at a dangerous place in the road. The Brexiters need to get a grip of themselves, so that the lives of ordinary people all over the UK are not blighted by many more years of economic misery and further declines in their living standards. In the name of what? English or British nationalism? Selling a few more flags is not going to help the economy out of its Brexit hole.
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