THERESA May seemed most pleased with herself during an utterly lamentable series of Brexit-related votes in Parliament on Tuesday night, which saw the squabbling Tories come together for once, as they strive to cling to power amid the UK’s biggest political crisis in decades.
The business community, both in the UK and mainland Europe, took a very different view of the votes. MPs rejected the entirely sensible idea of postponing Brexit (abandoning the folly would obviously be the rational ultimate position) and granted a bafflingly triumphant Prime Minister permission to try to change a withdrawal agreement with the European Union which our long-suffering neighbours continue to say is non-negotiable. The big issue, of course, remains the Irish border.
All the while, the clock ticks loudly and ominously.
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We have this week heard chatter about the potential for martial law, to protect the public in the event of shortages of food and medicine in the event of a no-deal Brexit. We also had an announcement by NHS Blood and Transplant in England that donor sessions would not take place in Dover and Folkestone for the two weeks before the UK leaves the EU on March 29 and the six weeks afterwards. This proposed course of action was then reversed by the Department of Health, which said donations would continue as normal.
If Brexit were a work of fiction, it would be difficult for even a master of the genre to dream all this up.
Yet, still, Mrs May will not rule out a no-deal Brexit. This is the default option if an agreement cannot be approved in time and if the UK Government continues to refuse to take the responsible course of action – delaying Brexit with immediate effect then taking the steps necessary to abandon this folly altogether.
The Conservative Party has been seen traditionally as the party of business in the UK. However, it has found itself in an unusual state of conflict with business over Brexit.
Mrs May and her Government still do not look to be taking the warnings of businesses, which have an ever-narrowing window to implement their no-deal contingency plans, seriously. And many Brexit-supporting Tory MPs seem to think the business community is bluffing.
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This attitude beggars belief. After all, in the period since the Brexit vote, the UK economy has performed miserably, and that is before we even go through the exit, or step off the cliff (the preferred option of arch-Brexiters). It has performed poorly in large part because of Brexit, with businesses understandably reluctant to invest and consumers most uneasy about what the future will bring.
These consumers and businesses can see that any form of Brexit will be hugely damaging to the UK economy, something that seems to be escaping Mrs May and most of her Government. The no-deal Brexit scenario which still excites so many anti-EU Tories would, in the Bank of England’s considered opinion, be likely to trigger a recession deeper than that resulting about a decade ago from the global financial crisis.
Surely the Conservative arch-Brexiters remember how grim the 2008/09 recession was for ordinary people? Or did they not notice? This was a recession outwith the UK’s control, caused by a global financial sector crisis, although thankfully the then Labour Government was able to take urgent and well-thought-out action to prevent the collapse of the UK banking system.
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In contrast, a no-deal Brexit recession would be something the UK Government had wilfully chosen.
It is worth emphasising that a significant number of Conservatives, including former chancellor Kenneth Clarke, have been impressive in flagging the damage which will be caused by Brexit to the UK economy. And it is entirely lamentable that some Labour MPs have refused to take a stand against Brexit, and especially against a no-deal scenario, given that leaving the EU will hit the living standards of their constituents so hard. That said, the buck stops with this Conservative Government, which continues to be propped up by the Democratic Unionist Party.
As the squabbling Tories attempt to find some kind of common ground on an issue which has now torn the country apart, solely because of an ill-judged decision by former prime minister David Cameron to have a vote on EU membership in the first place, the danger of no-deal rises.
A YouGov survey, published yesterday, shows business leaders’ favoured option is now a second referendum which is won by the Remain camp. But the poll also reveals business chiefs see a no-deal exit as the most likely outcome.
Investment bank Goldman Sachs said in the wake of Tuesday night’s votes that the chances of a no-deal Brexit had risen from 10 per cent to 15%. Ratings agency Moody’s warned on Wednesday that the risk of a disorderly Brexit “remains high”.
Businesses seem far, far less happy than Mrs May about the absolute Brexit shambles. Less than two months before the planned Brexit date, it is not at all clear what will happen next.
Speaking after Tuesday’s votes, CBI director-general Carolyn Fairbairn called it “another deeply frustrating day for British business”.
She observed the Brady amendment felt like a “throw of the dice”, adding: “It won’t be worth the paper it is written on if it cannot be negotiated with the EU.”
This is the amendment facilitating Mrs May’s latest odyssey, the attempt to renegotiate the Irish border backstop as she panders to Tory arch-Brexiters and the DUP.
Ms Fairbairn lamented: “The never-ending parliamentary process limps on while the economic impact of no-deal planning accelerates.”
She flagged the “economic cliff-edge that is draining money from the UK”. This cliff-edge does exist, even if arch-Brexiters refuse to see it.
The importance of sorting things out swiftly was also flagged by German business organisation BDI.
Joachim Lang, BDI chief executive, warned that it was hard for German companies to tolerate that London, presumably meaning the UK Government in this context, was still losing valuable time.
He observed businesses on both sides of the English Channel continued to hang in the air.
At least UK and German business groups are in harmony over this sorry Brexit fiasco. Sadly, the behaviour of the Tories, obsessed with their infighting rather than what is best for ordinary people, means there is a grave danger of the no-deal exit so feared by the business community and millions of households.
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