THERE would have been no prizes for guessing Brexit would be the key focus of Carolyn Fairbairn, director-general of the Confederation of British Industry, in her message to the business organisation’s Scottish annual dinner in Glasgow last night.
Ms Fairbairn, quite rightly homing in on this absolutely crucial issue for businesses as well as for millions of households, hammered home the need for the UK Government to act swiftly, warning a no-deal Brexit was “simply not an option” and posed “catastrophic risks” to the economy.
Read More: Analysis: Positives for Scotland but cliff-edge too close
The CBI, and other business organisations, have shown commendable patience since the Brexit vote more than two years ago, while warning of the impact of leaving the European Union under various scenarios. Many business leaders will surely have been utterly exasperated by the Brexit shambles. Regardless of any frustrations, senior figures in the CBI and other business organisations have remained constructive in their suggestions to the UK Government.
However, the clock is ticking, and it is easy to understand the dismay of many in the business world as their pleas continue to be ignored.
Paul Sheerin, chief executive of Scottish Engineering, deserves credit for his forthright remarks on Brexit.
In the industry body’s quarterly report, published last week, he wrote: “Three months ago, I described the Brexit progress as shambolic. Today I feel that a better description is chaotic and, given that we are more than two years down this road, with a total absence of clarity or meaningful progress, maybe it’s time to consider that this chaos might be here to stay for a while.”
Mr Sheerin’s remarks signal a degree of (justified) exasperation.
He wrote: “Larger organisations than ours have railed against the impact that a ‘hard’ or ‘no deal’ Brexit may bring, seemingly to no avail.”
Read More: Ian McConnell: Do not be fooled by these two Brexit tall tales from the Conservatives
And, in an interview with The Herald, Mr Sheerin declared: “Despite our and many others’ protests, it doesn’t feel as if there is any positive impact coming from that…Unfortunately for the business community, [it] doesn’t seem like we have any say or control over it at all.”
Ms Fairbairn appears exasperated that Scottish businesses are having to spend tens of millions of pounds in total on no-deal Brexit contingency planning because of the “massive” unresolved uncertainty at a time of pressing need to improve productivity. She believes business has been listened to, noting the transition deal struck between the UK and EU in the spring, albeit this is conditional on a withdrawal agreement. However, while hopeful that a cliff-edge can be avoided, she cites the danger of no-deal Brexit “by accident” as the clock ticks.
Read More: CBI chief dismay over no-deal Brexit ‘waste’
Mr Sheerin talked about how focusing on improving productivity might be more constructive. Given the degree to which the UK Government has turned a deaf ear to myriad sensible tips which would have mitigated the Brexit uncertainty long before now from the business community, which is usually listened to by the Conservatives, it is easy to see why he might take this view.
But it is good that Mr Sheerin, however exasperated he might be on Brexit, is still highlighting the dangers of leaving the EU. He is doing so in a manner surely understandable to most, although, given what we are seeing, maybe not in a way that some Brexiters are able to comprehend as they look at the world through red, white and blue-tinted spectacles.
He cited the example of one Scottish engineering company which had been supplying a Dutch business. He noted the arrangement, started fairly recently, had been going well but that the Dutch company had ended it because of fears over Brexit, wishing to keep its supply chain on the European mainland.
He said: “They [the Dutch company]...wanted to play safe.”
It seems that a growing proportion of the UK electorate, having seen the shambolic fall-out from the Brexit vote and where we might be headed, wants to take the safe, rather than dangerous and damaging, path.
A report authored by University of Strathclyde professor John Curtice, published this week by research bodies NatCen and The UK in a Changing Europe, showed 59% of the UK electorate would vote to stay in the EU, while only 41% would opt to exit, if there were another referendum. This is based on interviews conducted this summer, and excludes those who said they would not vote or did not know how they would vote. Polling expert Mr Curtice, a senior research fellow at NatCen, noted this was “by far and away the highest…level of support for Remain that we have recorded”.
Maybe more and more people are, at last, realising the predicament the UK has got itself into.
Then we have former foreign secretary Boris Johnson painting a surreal picture that the mess has arisen because the UK was not bold enough in going for a harder Brexit, or something along those lines.
This seems like a truly bizarre depiction, given the damage already done to the UK economy by the Brexit vote, before we even get to the horrors of the actual exit. Mr Johnson should take a look at how much further already-weak UK growth has slowed, and the impact of huge fears over Brexit on business investment and consumer confidence.
The UK’s woes have not, in any way, been caused by a lack of desire to pursue a hard Brexit. Quite the opposite. Hard Brexit fears have exacerbated the economy’s troubles. And an actual hard Brexit would be a huge blow for the UK economy, as well as society. The pickle in which the UK finds itself can be traced back to former prime minister David Cameron’s decision to have an EU referendum. And, following the lamentable Brexit vote, the Conservatives’ refusal to do a deal to stay in the single market post-Brexit has made matters a whole lot worse.
A survey this week from the Institute of Chartered Accountants of Scotland shows a tumble in confidence among UK finance chiefs in the Government’s ability to secure a free-trade deal with the EU in its Brexit talks.
Hard Brexit fears have once again weighed on the pound this week.
One thing which provided some support to embattled sterling on Tuesday was Bank of England Governor Mark Carney’s revelation that he would be willing to stay on beyond his planned June 2019 departure date. Such an extension would provide some much-needed continuity at the head of the Bank as the UK deals with its Brexit mess.
Mr Carney is to be commended for having, over the years, spelled out the economic realities of Brexit. While unpopular with the Brexiters, his analysis of the UK’s predicament has been far, far more convincing than Mr Johnson’s take on how the country has got itself into this mess.
Why are you making commenting on The Herald only available to subscribers?
It should have been a safe space for informed debate, somewhere for readers to discuss issues around the biggest stories of the day, but all too often the below the line comments on most websites have become bogged down by off-topic discussions and abuse.
heraldscotland.com is tackling this problem by allowing only subscribers to comment.
We are doing this to improve the experience for our loyal readers and we believe it will reduce the ability of trolls and troublemakers, who occasionally find their way onto our site, to abuse our journalists and readers. We also hope it will help the comments section fulfil its promise as a part of Scotland's conversation with itself.
We are lucky at The Herald. We are read by an informed, educated readership who can add their knowledge and insights to our stories.
That is invaluable.
We are making the subscriber-only change to support our valued readers, who tell us they don't want the site cluttered up with irrelevant comments, untruths and abuse.
In the past, the journalist’s job was to collect and distribute information to the audience. Technology means that readers can shape a discussion. We look forward to hearing from you on heraldscotland.com
Comments & Moderation
Readers’ comments: You are personally liable for the content of any comments you upload to this website, so please act responsibly. We do not pre-moderate or monitor readers’ comments appearing on our websites, but we do post-moderate in response to complaints we receive or otherwise when a potential problem comes to our attention. You can make a complaint by using the ‘report this post’ link . We may then apply our discretion under the user terms to amend or delete comments.
Post moderation is undertaken full-time 9am-6pm on weekdays, and on a part-time basis outwith those hours.
Read the rules hereLast Updated:
Report this comment Cancel