Not a day passes without further speculation on whether a second referendum on independence will be called shortly. The resulting effects of endless uncertainty, business people wasting their time on politics instead of getting on with business and politicians avoiding the more mundane but vital jobs they are supposed to be concentrating on, are all unhelpful to our economy. Growth is less than it should be, living standards stagnate and public services come under more pressure.
There is large group of people in Scotland who want to remain part of the UK and a large group who do not. The first group is a bit bigger than the second but not that much bigger. Within each group there are diehards who vote for emotional reasons and those who try to weigh up the pro’s and con’s of the options before deciding which they prefer.
We can take two things from this.
First, any referendum would be deeply divisive for our country. Referendums should be used to endorse a clear cut and widely held view, otherwise they only deepen divisions and do great damage to our society and economy. Another referendum which had a narrow result - either way - would be a disaster and that is exactly what is likely to happen if one were held shortly.
Second, the people in either camp who would like some proper facts in order to decide how to vote are in a hopeless position. The economic prospectus which the SNP put before us last time has turned out to be catastrophically over optimistic, can they be trusted to produce another one? - why don’t we see how well they govern do for a bit so we can decide whether they are capable of producing accurate forecasts? And what of the future? Will the UK be able to achieve a sensible Brexit arrangement which allows businesses in Scotland to trade easily with the EU or not? - we do not know, all we have at the moment is posturing by all parties rather than facts. Will England become a nasty little inward looking country which we will not feel comfortable with or will it retain its historic place as an outward looking liberal and tolerant nation which we would be happy to co-exist with? - we don’t know yet. Will the EU continue to stagger under the weight of over-regulation, bureaucracy, corruption and debt or will it get its act together and be a club worth being part of? - the jury is out. Would we have to adopt the Euro if an independent Scotland joined the EU or not? - we don’t know. Unless we have the answers to these questions how can we possibly reach a rational conclusion as to whether we should remain part of the UK or not? The idea of a referendum on independence for Scotland before we have the proper facts is ludicrous, unfair, self-serving nonsense from the Scottish Government.
Here is the solution.
The UK Government should legislate now to allow the Scottish Parliament the right to hold a legally valid referendum on independence. The legislation must contain four conditions. First, the power can only be used once. Second, the referendum can only take place between 2025 and 2030. Third, the Electoral Commission must decide (not just review as it did last time) the referendum question - Remain/Leave was a much fairer question than Yes/No. Fourth, provisions must be laid down to ensure fairness in any referendum process.
Then could we all please just get back to our day jobs for a few years - investing, creating jobs, improving services?
Pinstripe is a senior member of Scotland's financial services community
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