INVESTORS often focus on the wrong things. It should be business and economics, but politics dominates headlines. No matter that many commentators and pollsters had little prior insight into last year’s votes, there is still endless political analysis. This appeals to many who don’t like the US presidential election result. Trump worries them and they want to know how bad it could be. Cash seems safest, not shares.
Emotion is rarely helpful in investing and politicians seldom have the unfettered power or resource to deliver what they promise, even if they ever meant it. Instead, investors should focus on the economic landscape and prospects for global growth.
A world with Trump as President may be new territory, yet it might still be good for shares. Investment horizons for portfolios should not be narrowly confined to countries that exactly align with our own personal political views.
The US stock market represents just over half of the global total available to investors and the economies of many other countries are also linked to the US dollar. By comparison, the UK is just seven per cent. Overseas assets and earnings matter - over the past 12 months, the pound has fallen 14 per cent against the dollar.
What economic impact should we expect from Trump?
A strong US economy helps the rest of the world. On many measures, the US has made a better recovery from the financial crisis than most major economies. It has taken tough action with its banks and unemployment is now at low levels.
Some problems remain, but the US’s failure to grow average real wages over the longer term and the high debt that has been run up to generate this recovery are problems shared by many western nations.
Scope for further US borrowing may be limited, but there is agreement across the political spectrum that more infrastructure expenditure is justified and will boost the global economy. British and European companies will benefit from this, particularly in construction.
Trump arrived at a time of economic change. Money printing and low interest rates have had no real impact in recent years and policy initiatives are now being led by governments rather than central banks.
Since last summer, investors have focused on the potential for tax cuts, increased spending and deregulation to reflate the global economy. As yet, there is little clarity on what protectionist policies Trump could implement, but any action will likely favour US business.
Plans to cut the US tax rate on corporate income from 35 per cent to 15 per cent would encourage American businesses to repatriate cash, while also boosting US investment.
Trump’s plans to lighten the load on banks, combined with higher US interest rates, have breathed new life into the sector. The proposed easing of US banking regulation may also be mirrored in other countries and help British and eurozone banks. Businesses that support infrastructure, such as cement producers and those that supply iron and copper, have already risen strongly. But that move was from low levels, and the market may be under-estimating the potential for pricing to tighten further in many commodities.
In the first weeks of his presidency, Trump’s rhetoric has focused on trade, immigration and healthcare. But this will give way to more detailed economic plans with a far-reaching impact on economies and investors around the world. We could yet see sweeping reform of company tax, a rollback of regulations and new tax stimulus.
At the same time, the risks to the UK and European economies are increasing. The pound could fall further – there is little sign yet that UK consumer demand has weakened or the trade deficit narrowed.
The winners in a changed economic landscape may be overseas. Investors need to look further afield and strip away some of the emotion from their investing.
Colin McLean is managing director of SVM Asset Management.
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