UK economic growth is likely to have picked up marginally in the first quarter in spite of weaker manufacturing expansion, the Confederation of British Industry has declared.
The CBI said its growth indicator, derived from its surveys of activity in manufacturing, retail, wholesale and the motor trades, and consumer, business and professional services, pointed to UK gross domestic product having grown by 0.7 per cent quarter-on-quarter in the opening three months of 2015.
This would be a slight acceleration from the 0.6 per cent growth in the fourth quarter of 2014 unveiled in figures last week from the Office for National Statistics.
However, the forecast 0.7 per cent growth would be adrift of official rates of expansion of 0.9 per cent for the first quarter of 2014 and 0.8 per cent for the three months to June last year. Growth in the third quarter of 2014 was 0.6 per cent.
The CBI's latest growth indicator for the three months to March, published today, is +18 per cent. This reading, derived from subtracting the proportions of respondents reporting falls in activity from those posting rises in the various CBI surveys, is down marginally from +19 per cent in the three months to February.
However, estimating first-quarter UK growth would have been "solid", the CBI highlighted stronger growth in the opening quarter in the distribution sector, comprising retail, wholesale and motor trades, and in consumer services.
Katja Hall, CBI deputy director-general, said: "Our surveys show it's been a solid start to the year with the prospect of stronger growth to come. The benefits of lower oil prices should be increasingly felt, with cheaper petrol boosting households' incomes and spending power, and cutting costs for many businesses."
However, she added: "The main risk to the UK economy comes from the eurozone, with continuing wrangling over Greece's bailout package stoking uncertainty. Plus, many businesses will also have to contend with a stronger pound weighing down on already weak export growth."
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