Rachel Ormston

Our latest Ipsos Scotland polling suggests that the Scottish public is equally negative in its assessment of the current state of the economy – 76% say the Scotland economy is currently in a ‘poor’ state, with just 20% saying it is in a ‘good’ state. Neither do they expect it to improve particularly quickly – 75% expect the Scottish economy to either stay the same (29%) or get worse (46%) in the next 12 months.

The 2024 general election campaign has seen more polling than ever before – based on a crude tally last week, there had been around 20% more polls released so far this campaign than at a similar point in 2019.

Our most recent Ipsos Scotland poll has Labour and the SNP neck and neck, each with the support of 36% of likely voters. The Conservatives are trailing on 13%, with the Liberal Democrats on 5% and Reform on 4% (in contrast with recent UK-wide polls that estimate support for Reform at between 9% and 17%).

If 2019 was a ‘Brexit election’, it could be argued that this summer’s unexpected general election is shaping up to be a ‘public services’ election. Opinion polls place public services – especially the NHS, but also education in Scotland in particular – at the top of the public’s list of issues that will shape how they vote on July 4th, well ahead of constitutional issues like Brexit or, in Scotland, independence.

THE UK Labour Party end 2022 with reason for optimism. Ipsos’ latest Political Monitor (November 2022) estimated Labour would receive 50% of the vote among likely voters across Britain, which compares with 29% for the Conservatives – a gap of 21 percentage points, compared with the 1-point gap (Labour on 36%, Conservatives on 35%) recorded by Ipsos a year earlier.