THE theory used to be that if a trainer thought he had two colts good enough to run in the Derby then he probably did not have one good enough to win.
Aidan O'Brien may have debunked that line of thinking somewhat in winning the race for the past three years, five in all, and running a staggering total of 59 colts since 1998.
However, even with the vast battalions of the Coolmore syndicate of owners providing a level of resources to make Fort Knox seem akin to a piggy bank, it is John Gosden who appears to be holding the best hand for this year's Investec Derby.
Over the winter O'Brien exerted a near stranglehold on the race with six of the top seven in the betting with few outside Gosden's yard in Newmarket paying much attention to Golden Horn after he broke his maiden at Nottingham in October and even less when Jack Hobbs won at Wolverhampton just after Christmas. But by the time that spring had finally sprung the two had become the springers in the Derby market when Golden Horn led home a stable one-two in the Dante Stakes at York last month.
They go to post at Epsom at the top of the betting but Gosden has been around for too long to make bold predictions that they will come out on top of the pile when the starting stalls crash open as he attempts to add a second Derby victory to Benny The Dip's win in 1997.
"I don't see them as the two favourites," he said. "There's some nice horses coming from France and even Germany, and you know that the ones Aidan's got in there will make sure it's a strong pace, so anything that doesn't stay will be exposed. So, to that extent, it's a lot more contentious race than some people are thinking.
"I think it was a solid Dante, at a solid pace, and they're two nice horses but I think there's more depth in the field than people are reckoning."
The Derby was not originally in the reckoning of Golden Horn's owner-breeder, Anthony Oppenheimer. Having feared the colt did not possess the stamina for a mile and a half he did not even enter him as a yearling instead favouring the shorter Prix du Jockey Club in France. However, after his Dante victory over 10 and a half furlongs Oppenheimer possessed the funds to pay for a £75,000 supplementary entry in the belief that his horse may well possess what will be required to cover the extra 340 yards needed to win the Derby.
"It was the owner's decision - he's a great sportsman," Gosden said. "He likened it to the casino. He'd won the money, it was on the table. It's wasn't like he was having to go to his bank account to write a cheque."
Stamina is not as easily gauged as a bank account but its reserves can be just as easily frittered away. Golden Horn's sire, Cape Cross, has already produced both a Derby and Oaks winner in Sea The Stars and Ouija Board and Gosden is placing faith in the belief that the colt's attitude may make up for stamina deficiencies on the distaff side of the pedigree.
"I think that temperament is a big plus - it's like his father, Cape Cross. When you're trying to stay, if you don't relax early on you don't stay. But, if they make a true test of it, you do have to stay a mile and a half. There'll be no hiding places."
If Gosden has grounds for believing that Golden Horn can last the trip it is the ground that is his primary concern regarding Jack Hobbs, in whom Sheikh Mohammed's Godolphin stable bought an interest after the Dante.
Gosden will walk the course this morning before making a final decision but harbours the doubt that the first Saturday in June might come just too soon for a horse who is still something of a work in progress.
"He's an improving horse, he should have run earlier but he just needed the time. When they ran in the Dante I wanted William [Buick] on Golden Horn because I had him sorted but I wanted Frankie [Dettori] on Jack Hobbs not because I thought he'd beat the other horse but I wanted him to give me his opinion about whether to go to the Derby.
"I don't think he had a very satisfactory run through the race at York and he's still the unfinished article. I'm pretty sure that Jack Hobbs will get the trip but he's a big, rangy horse and the old-timers will argue that he's got too much daylight under him."
So much for the theory. Now time for the practical test.
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