Scots are feeling more Scottish and less British - so what next?

A slightly more sophisticated survey method asks people to state if they identify as ‘Scottish not British’, ‘More Scottish than British’, ‘Equally Scottish and British’, ‘More British than Scottish’ or ‘British not Scottish’.

Over a longer period of time – January 2012 to the latest available data in December 2022 – ‘Scottish not British’ rose to predominate over ‘More Scottish than British’ and ‘Equally Scottish and British’. So, the sense of Scottish national identity has solidified and strengthened.

Fast forward to today and the effect of the general election campaign on society in Scotland is to accentuate both the senses of Scottishness and Britishness and the divide between them.

Sir Keir Starmer is rarely seen in England without a Union flag (Image: free)

As Labour under Sir Keir Starmer has become more right-wing than for many years, it has also become ever more patriotic under him. That patriotism is to Britain and is clearly evident in the imagery and words used by Labour, whether that be using the Union flag on election materials, promising to create the Great British Energy company or using the slogan, Let's Get Britain's Future Back.

Thus far, all the polls suggest that Labour in Scotland will take many seats from the SNP and secure the most MPs in Scotland.

Meantime, SNP depute party leader, Keith Brown, laid out the SNP’s case for being the only political party capable of defending ‘Scottish values’. Then his party leader, John Swinney, urged electors to vote SNP in order to put 'Scotland's interests first'. Yet, the SNP seems set to further lose its grip upon political dominance in Scottish politics in the run up to the crucial 2026 Holyrood elections.

We have a few more weeks of the crass but conflictual counter-posing of national identities. Nigel Farage’s re-entry into the general election campaign as a party leader and candidate for the Clacton constituency has only further served to emphasise Britishness, with Reform UK using a Trump-toting slogan of Let’s Make Britain Great.

So, standing back from all this, what will be the implications for the differences in political values between Scotland and England as a result of this period of frenzied politicking?

Successive British Social Attitudes surveys have shown for several decades that people in Scotland are more egalitarian in their values than those in England in terms of recognising social inequality and desiring more governmental intervention to ameliorate through the likes of higher taxation and more public spending.

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There has been some debate about the extent of these differences as well as the extent to which they have changed over time. Nonetheless, there is a consensus that the differences do exist and are genuine.

As an aside, it’s worth recalling here that if the attitudes of people in the Central Belt of Scotland are contrasted to a comparable region of England, like the north east of north west, the differences would be far less marked.

With the likelihood of a Starmer-led Labour government in Westminster as well as a loud presence of Reform UK and a decimated Tory party seeking to battle Reform UK on the patriotism front, not only will the national identity of Britishness be ratcheted up but there will be a backlash of Scottishness.

Right-wing politics will then become further enmeshed with British national identity. The sting in the tail will really come when Labour at Westminster is recognised as not making the required and desired changes that people voted it for in Scotland, where the sense of what is Scottishness will, therefore, strengthen further.

This will be the counter-punch because of the more egalitarian values in Scotland and the association of these with what is seen as being Scottish. But this does not mean the right-wing politics entwined with Britishness will find their polar political opposite in the traditional upholder of Scottishness, namely, the SNP.

The SNP’s attempt to portray itself as social democratic and left-wing has been a classic case of ‘the emperor’s new clothes’. Under new leader, Swinney but pushed on by right-winger, Kate Forbes, not only will the SNP not try - or even be able - to continue with this charade but it will move to become openly more business-friendly.

Forbes is not only Deputy First Minister of Scotland but also Cabinet Secretary for Economy. Consequently, this Scottish sense of political progressiveness will not find a political home in the SNP. The Alba party, led by Alex Salmond, will also not change this equation, whether as a result of its small size, lack of credibility or not being left-wing.

'A sense of hopelessness, disillusionment and despair could easily come into Scottish politics' (Image: free)

Surprisingly, support for independence will strengthen, even where the SNP is no longer the dominant political force. But, with a revival of the radical left in Scotland unlikely any time soon, there is no obvious vehicle by which the progressive sense of Scottishness will find any political representation in the political system.

Unfortunately, a sense of hopelessness, disillusionment and despair could easily come into play. Some may say this is where the independence movement will find its feet again. Yet not only is the independence movement’s ‘jam tomorrow’ a promise even further down the line than that of a political party in any forthcoming election but the independence movement is not naturally or wholly progressive and left-wing.

Finally, what of the Scottish Greens? Though not necessarily damaged by their drastic defenestration from the Scottish Government, their Scottishness is somewhat still subdued. In this context, it seems to many that they do not embody a wide enough portfolio of progressive policies to be able to benefit from the coming further movement of the Tectonic plates of politics.

Professor Gregor Gall is a research associate at the University of Glasgow and editor of A New Scotland: Building an Equal, Fair and Sustainable Society (Pluto Press, 2022)