Calm down chaps, Nicola Sturgeon’s not done yet

Nigel Farage was there too. No Nigel Farage, no Brexit. A simply brilliant communicator, Mr Farage was solely responsible for David Cameron’s Conservative party offering the Brexit referendum as part of its 2015 manifesto, in an attempt to stop the bleeding of its vote to UKIP. And the rest is history.

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For different reasons, I included Martin McGuinness, without whom it is probably fair to say Northern Ireland may not be the relatively peaceful place it is today. After his own journey to peace, Mr McGuiness, incredibly, became as trusted by the community which had been so scarred by the IRA as their own unionist politicians.

And finally, Alex Salmond who, despite all the water which has passed under the bridge since, took Scotland closer to independence than anybody else could have. Whatever Scotand’s final constitutional solution, it is highly likely to contain his fingerprints.

Who of our current crop of politicians, across these islands, might enter that club in the years to come? Only one: Nicola Sturgeon.

Ms Sturgeon is, as I think most with a degree of impartiality would concede, the pre-eminent British politician of this generation. She is the biggest beast on the plains. She has had complete control of her party, and of the Scottish Parliament, for nearly a decade. And, particularly during the Covid pandemic, she showed herself to have the intellect, the rigour, the stomach for the most exacting test leadership has to offer.

She does all this while retaining great personal warmth, which does not always emerge in the public eye but which is an instinctive part of her, and which I have experienced on several occasions.

And all of that, reader, is why talk of Ms Sturgeon’s imminent demise merits much closer scrutiny. Over the last couple of weeks, particularly since the case of Adam Graham/Isla Bryson (delete according to your preference) came to light, I have had countless politicians and political observers tell me: “She’s finished”.

My answer is always the same: “How? Talk me through it…”.

The latest exhibit to emerge, held up as another example of her imminent downfall, was this week’s Ipsos MORI poll, which had Ms Sturgeon’s favourability rating down to 43 per cent, from 47 per cent. It followed last weekend’s YouGov polling, showing the SNP down six points to 44 per cent, and No retaking the lead over Yes.

Of course, none of this is good news for Ms Sturgeon. But much of the analysis which followed the results has lacked any meaningful context. At 43 per cent, Ms Sturgeon’s favourability is thrice that of Douglas Ross, and half-again as much as Anas Sarwar’s. It is 10 points higher than Sir Keir, the man who is about to ride in on the white horse.

And at 44 per cent, the SNP’s poll rating is enough to translate into 62 seats at a Holyrood election; another landslide and another near-busting of the proportional representation system. One could see a path to power for Scotland’s Labour party, but that path leads to the 2031 election, certainly not to 2026.

Calm down, chaps – you are still miles behind.

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Here is what I will say is true: Nicola Sturgeon is closer to the end than the start. Now in her ninth year in the top job, she will not be there in another nine. And she will, perhaps, never again enjoy the ratings – personal and party – that she has in the past.

Dominance comes at a price, and that price can often be in the form of complacency, and a loss of the instinctive political radar which makes great politicians great. Errors have crept in. I understand the reasons for the cooperation agreement with the Green party, however I felt then as I do now, that it was an historic mistake with tentacles across the policy spectrum.

Ms Sturgeon’s traditional propensity to seek a middle ground position which pleases the middle ground voter has been eroded in recent years, and this has culminated in what has become devolution’s biggest battleground – gender recognition. She is either disinterested in public mood, or has misread it.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon during First Minster's Questions (FMQs) in the debating chamber of the Scottish Parliament in Edinburgh (Image: Newsquest)

But this tells us something, does it not? A predatory rapist has self-identified as a woman and made his or her way into Cornton Vale prison and yet, still, Ms Sturgeon and the SNP are in an opinion polling league of their own.

Political leaders are brought down by one of two things: their own party, or events. The SNP, for sure, is as fractious as it has been for 20 years, but there is no serious clamour for a new leader. Think of the last few years of Westminster’s Tories and compare; there are no men in grey kilts.

And events remain in the distance. If, as I expect, Ms Sturgeon reverses out of holding a proxy referendum in 2024 and delays it until 2026, we are still over three years from the ‘event’ which we might envisage leading to her departure.

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And, of course, it might not. It would be a brave observer who would rule out nationalist parties winning that proxy referendum, with Prime Minister Starmer then granting a real one, and Ms Sturgeon leading Scotland to independence, thereby becoming the most impactful politician of any of our lifetimes.

It may not be the central assumption, but it is by no means far fetched.

Nicola Sturgeon may be on the slide. But if she is, it’s a long slide, she’s still near the top, and she might yet break the rules and climb back up it.