It’s hard to believe it really but it’s now 10 years since the launch of the Better Together campaign to keep Scotland in the Union. Just think about that for a second: ten years. Think about how different the world was then. There was no Brexit. There was no Megxit. Dear God: there was no Line of Duty.

It's also strange, and sobering, to look back at the launch with a bit of 2022 hindsight. Some of the campaign is still highly relevant, particularly the kind of things Alistair Darling was saying about the problems a referendum raises. “Think of all the big questions the world is challenged by,” he said, “and think really hard about which of these questions is Scottish independence the answer.” Ten years on, that still pretty much goes to the heart of the matter for many No voters.

But some of what was said at the time of the launch in 2012 is relevant in different ways – more disturbing ways. As you know, the campaign was multi-party; Mr Darling was joined at the launch by the then Labour leader Johann Lamont, the Conservative leader Ruth Davidson and the Liberal Democrats’ Willie Rennie. Ms Lamont said working with their old enemies the Tories was the “right thing to do”.

The idea, of course, was that the cross-party alliance could be a microcosm of the union itself – everyone working together – and the Prime Minister David Cameron sought to underline this point when he responded to the launch. “Politics is too often about division,” he said, “but today three political parties are joining forces to celebrate the UK and say it is something worth fighting for.” We treasure our United Kingdom, he said, and Scotland’s place in a family of nations.

I realise that, a decade on and downwind from Brexit, it’s easy to be cynical about that. But even now, even after everything that’s happened, even after all the murky, turbulent water that’s flowed under the shoogly bridge of the UK, I still get what Cameron was saying. I like the idea of a family of nations, even one in which some of the siblings are bigger than others. And I like the idea of parties joining forces.

But even at the time, even amidst all the idealistic talk of working together, you could see the signs of danger ahead. Right from the start, Alex Salmond, in that instinctual way he had for spotting the gaps in a wall, could see his plan of attack. Better Together, he said, was “Tory-led” and Labour in Scotland would “pay for a generation” for campaigning with the Conservatives. Quite quickly the phrase “Red Tory” also started to catch on and spread on social media and Labour campaigners bridled at it because it hurt, and as an insult it worked.

In some ways – with the benefit of my hindsight glasses again – it’s hard to understand why Scottish Labour didn’t predict such problems and the down sides of the Better Together alliance given the depth of the hatred many Scots feel for the Tories. It’s also why Salmond kept banging on about it. You are hand in glove and shoulder to shoulder with the Tories, he told them, and you will not be forgiven.

Was he right? Probably. The political fortunes of Labour in Scotland since 2014 have been disastrous and there are no real signs of a recovery for the party. It also looks like senior figures in Labour are finally beginning to accept in public that working with the Tories in Better Together was a mistake and needs to be rethought in any future referendum. The deputy leader in Scotland Jackie Baillie has said it was wrong for the party to be part of Better Together and they would run their own distinctive campaign in any future vote.

I have to say: I agree with Jackie and I agree with her because of what I saw for myself in 2014. I remember one day in particular when I visited a Yes office in Ayrshire and spoke to some of the campaigners recently converted from Labour. Some of them were idealistic about independence and liked the idea, but most of them were actually just angry about the Tories and wanted shot of them and thought voting Yes was a way to do it. It seemed to me that in many ways, the referendum was actually just a proxy for other stuff, mainly how much many Scots hate the Tories.

It is probably that issue – rather than the bigger issues about the constitution and independence – that really caused the problems for Labour. Most of their supporters disliked the Tories and yet they saw their leader, Johann Lamont, standing on a podium chortling away with Ruth Davidson. In the words of Alex Salmond, suddenly Labour appeared to be hand in glove and shoulder to shoulder with Tories and it stuck in their craw.

A decade on, Jackie Baillie now clearly realises her party could not do the same thing again and partly I guess it’s about self-preservation for her. Better Together won the referendum and to that extent it was a success but for Scottish Labour it cannot possibly feel like a victory. The debate about independence has not been settled, the SNP is still in government ten years later and Labour still appears to have little prospect of ever replacing them. What kind of victory is that?

So yes of course Jackie Baillie doesn’t want to do the same thing again – don’t make the same mistake twice – but I also agree with her thoughts on Better Together for another reason: if there is another referendum, it won’t be like the last one. In 2014, we were faced with Yes versus No and the SNP versus Better Together, but next time it will be different. The chances are there will be several options – Yes, the status quo, devo-max, federalism and so on – and so the battle will be fought on several fronts and Labour might not even agree with the Tories on the main points to be fought over.

In some ways, the idea of a campaign of that nature makes me nervous because my instinct tells me that a united campaign is more likely to win. But look at how much has changed in ten years. Labour has more to lose. The case for the Union has been complicated by the two Bs: Boris and Brexit. And the Yes side too is not what it was: the SNP government is knackered, there are divisions in the party and their case for independence has been complicated by Brexit as well as energy and oil.

What I’m saying, essentially, is that I get where Jackie Baillie is coming from. If there is a referendum in 2023, it won’t be the same as the one we endured in 2014. The people will be different. The problems will be different. And the potential solutions will be different too. Better Together may have been the right way to do things in 2014 (at a considerable cost to Labour) but to win again, next time it will have to be different.

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