Ukrainian courage dominates the front pages. Faced with tanks, shells and bombing, Ukrainians talk only of anger at Putin’s unprovoked attack, not fear of his powerful army.

So, Ukraine is no real country? Strange then, that so many are ready to fight and die for an “administrative region”.

Like the 13 soldiers of Snake Island who told a Russian warship to “go f*** themselves” before shelling prompted Ukraine’s president to conclude the men had been killed. Now it appears they may still be alive.

Like Volodymyr Zelenskyy himself, whose messages of defiance are now circling the globe. As Russian tanks crossed Ukraine’s international borders he stated; “When you attack us, you will see our faces. Not our backs.” As the Americans offered to help his family leave; “The fight is here. I need ammunition, not a ride.” And after reports he had fled the country; “We’re all here. And it will stay this way.”

But as we remain glued to TVs and radios, praying Russia’s advance continues to falter, the plight of Ukraine is quietly challenging political structures across the European continent.

Not least because Poland and Lithuania have demanded an express path for Ukraine to become EU members, supported by former presidents of Sweden, Denmark, Estonia and Poland as “a game changing sign to Ukraine as well as the Kremlin” and “a bold, courageous, and meaningful political statement [that] would demand exceptional leadership from EU member states to [tell voters] why offering an EU membership perspective to Ukraine is the right decision now.”

So, will France and Germany respond or hope the headline-grabbing horrors of invasion serve to obscure this profound political challenge?

Actually, one EU member has been here already. Finland endured just such international isolation in the face of Russian aggression during the terrible winter of 1939 when a third of its population volunteered to support divisions of snipers, who lived in tunnels beneath the snow and finally repelled the mighty Red Army. An awestruck Winston Churchill commented – “Finland alone, in danger of death – superb, sublime Finland – shows what free men can do.”

That admiration promptly ended in 1941 when the Russians reinvaded and an isolated Finland let Hitler's forces help them repel the Red Army again. After the war, Finland opted not to join NATO but maintained conscription and a large army to patrol its 1,340km border with Russia. It joined the European Union in 1995 and became the only Nordic country to adopt the Euro four years later. NATO membership was considered unnecessarily provocative to Russia, but enthusiastic EU membership has become a large plank of Finnish security.

Now, Ukraine – shunned by NATO – may be heading along the same path.

Poland’s call for Ukrainian membership poses another long-term challenge to the six EU founders who’ve struggled to agree on measures like excluding Russia from the Swift financial system or imposing a total embargo on Russian oil and gas imports.

Of course, there are big problems with a fast-track EU membership bid by Ukraine. But greater than the problem of abandoning 44 million people, currently risking their lives to join the hurdy gurdy path of western democracy?

In light of that sacrifice, justifiable EU worries about process and consequence look like very small beer. Already caution has been thrown to the wind.

So, Germans will pay more for energy after freezing the NordStrom2 gas pipeline project. So what? So, Scottish salmon and whisky exports could be lost following the invasion? Whatever. So, it means grain prices have also shot up – well, there’s probably too much wheat in our diet anyway.

So, highly paid City lawyers and financial advisers will lose customers if London finally tackles dodgy shell companies – well, it’s a shame Scotland’s sky-high land prices didn’t prompt action against them years ago. But if the wave of anger and shame over Ukraine stops oligarchs buying land, stately homes and offshoring stolen assets, so be it.

The fact of unprovoked Russian aggression in Ukraine is already changing everything.

And if successful, Poland's call for Ukrainian EU membership, if backed by other EU members, will change the corporate, cautious nature of EU leadership forever.

This weekend, after dumping his own fiercely anti-migrant stance to open borders for Ukrainian migrants, Poland’s President Andrzej Duda said, “Candidate status [for Ukraine] should be granted immediately. Ukraine should also have access to EU funds for reconstruction.”

So how will the Big Two react?

France and Germany have just been proved wrong about the wisdom of relying on the €10 billion Nordstrom 2 pipeline for Russian gas. Ukraine warned for years that Russia would be given the green light to invade once it no longer needed Ukraine's gas infrastructure to supply European customers. No one listened.

The Germans’ reluctant decision to freeze the Russian pipeline shows they are listening now. But for how long?

Will Berlin quietly un-freeze Nordstrom2 once Russia is triumphant or vanquished in Ukraine? Will EU leaders turn a deaf ear to requests for fast-tracked EU membership and wait to see which side wins? And even if Ukrainian ‘sisu’ beats the Red Army back, will EU leaders then object that its deficit is too large, its laws too non-compliant and pre-invasion corruption levels too high for a speedy Ukrainian EU bid?

In short, will the well-appointed cruise liner Brussels/Strasbourg stop to pick up this bold, new wannabe European state mid-channel or leave Ukraine stranded beyond the EU just as it’s been cast adrift by NATO?

There is no guarantee that Finlandisation – seeking security beyond NATO but within the EU – would actually deter Russia, now or later. And the question of EU membership will become academic if Ukraine falters and the Russians sweep in.

But the gauntlet has been thrown down by Poland.

Does the EU belong to France and Germany or can East European states demand flexibility, urgency and some calculated risk-taking from the original founding members? Sooner or later, “old” western Europe will have to answer.

Lesley Riddoch is director of the Nordic Horizons policy group. The next free online event – Nordic responses to the Russian invasion of Ukraine – is on March 10th. For more information, see nordichorizons.org/nordic-reactions-to-the-russian-challenge

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