By Ken Thomson, Marketing manager at Stirling District Tourism

IN just over 12 months, the UK will officially leave the EU, but what might that mean for one of Scotland’s most important industries?

When a visitor to Scotland talks about being “totally blown away” by the experience of visiting the likes of Stirling’s National Wallace Monument and many other of the country’s landmarks, it reminds us that the tourism product which this small country offers genuinely has the capacity to impress through its landscapes, heritage, and the powerful, emotional stories which it tells.

Those are just some of the reasons why 2017 was such a successful year for Scottish tourism. 2017 saw the country share in Britain’s record-breaking success in attracting – nearly 40 million international visitors, almost three million of whom travelled to Scotland. This meant that the number of trips made by international visitors to Scotland grew by more than 14 per cent on the previous year, with the economic impact to the Scottish economy up by more than 18 per cent.

As the approaching Easter holiday signals the start of the main visitor season for 2018, the outlook for Scotland’s tourism sector is (in the short-term at least) extremely positive, with no shocks anticipated which would upset this pattern of growth. Fast-forward 12 months when the UK will be on the cusp of leaving the EU, will Scotland’s tourism sector be approaching the 2019 season with the same degree of optimism?

Many of the Brexit-linked issues which have implications for the tourism sector have already been raised – from the recruitment of employees from other EU countries, through to the cost and the availability of consumables used in the hospitality sector. But there’s one element so fundamental to a successful tourism trade that has not yet been discussed, and that’s travel itself.

The most recent research conducted among potential European leisure visitors by VisitBritain suggests that Brexit is not having any impact on their willingness to travel to Britain for short breaks and holidays at the moment. They still view Britain as a welcoming destination, and they agree that the exchange rate between the euro and the pound means that now is a good time to visit. However, the likelihood of European visitors travelling to Britain post-Brexit has declined as concerns about travel practicalities are emerging. So how might those issues affect Scotland?

The outcome of the negotiations which are ongoing between the UK and the EU need to provide clarity and certainty across all of the travel-related questions, including “will EU residents still enjoy visa-free – and charge-free – travel to the UK?” and “will visitors from overseas who travel to Scotland through ‘gateway’ airports (such as Amsterdam, Paris, or Frankfurt) still be able to transit ‘seamlessly’ through EU countries before arriving in Britain?”

These – and many other questions – need to be resolved in sufficient time to enable airlines, tourism suppliers and destinations to make their post-March 2019 operating plans, and to protect Scottish tourism from a post-Brexit shock.

Just like the castles and monuments which have endowed Scotland with such a rich heritage, the country’s tourism sector has proven to be strong and resilient. As an industry, it has come to terms with successive waves of disruption – from ash clouds over Iceland shutting airports to Airbnb revolutionising the accommodation market through technological innovation. When Brexit arrives in 2019, it has the ability to be every bit as disruptive – current negotiations must address the travel question in order to enable the continued growth of Scotland’s great tourism industry.