As she stood on the steps of Downing Street and promised to lead a government that would make the UK “a country that works for everyone”, Theresa May was making a direct appeal to disillusioned Labour voters and those in UKIP-supporting working class areas – the very people that had just voted for Brexit.
Since then, in a bid to cement her position in such constituencies, she has kept up the “Brexit means Brexit” mantra, while avoiding all calls to explain what she believes the UK’s post-EU future will actually look like. For the moment, the prime minister’s personal ratings remain high, the honeymoon continues.
The latest inflation figures, however, should serve as a warning that the post-Brexit economy is waiting to bite; high prices and empty wallets can end any political honeymoon.
September’s rising prices for clothes, hotel rooms and petrol led to the highest rate of inflation for almost two years, up to 1.0 per cent from 0.6 per cent in just a month, the biggest jump monthly since June 2014. And although the Office for National Statistics suggested there was no explicit evidence that the low pound was responsible, businesses expect this to change, and say further price rises will soon hit the pound in our pockets.
In historic terms, 1.0 per cent is, of course, low. But the fragile post-Brexit situation, coming on top of years of austerity, puts us in uncharted waters. Once inflation rises above wage growth – currently running at just over 2.0 per cent – then incomes start to fall in real terms, and that causes us pain. Meanwhile, with price rises focused on commodities like petrol, this discomfort is likely to feel even more acute.
All this would be politically uncomfortable for any government. But it will surely be even more concerning for Mrs May, who is staking her reputation on the aforementioned appeal to working and lower middle-class voters. Lest we forget that these are the very people who suffered most from the austerity drives of the previous administration, the wage freezes and service cuts that some would argue contributed to the toxic atmosphere that fed the Leave campaign during the EU referendum.
It’s also worth noting that it was Mrs May’s announcement that she would trigger article 50, the mechanism to take the UK out of the EU, no later than March, that led to the latest falls in the pound. With this in mind, the prime minister would be advised to proceed with caution; any further currency devaluation would likely hit the pockets of the very people she has promised to prioritise.
Leaving the single market is perhaps the biggest threat not only to the value of the pound, but the success of the wider UK economy. Mrs May, however, has indicated she views immigration controls as more important than continued membership of the single market. The latest inflation figures suggest it may be politically expedient of her to rethink this position. After all, for voters - even those who voted for Brexit - it’s always about the economy, stupid. Mrs May would do well to remember that as she approaches Brexit negotiations.
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