Immigration crackdown will create a ‘perfect storm’ for Scotland

Tourism, care, farming and fishing bosses have also hit out at the proposals and called for urgent talks with UK ministers about the plans, which are due to come into effect in January next year.

The Scottish Government has claimed that the policy will impact Scotland more so than elsewhere in the UK due to the reliance on migrant populations to increase Scotland’s overall population, due to the death rate exceeding the birth rate in native Scots.

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Professor Rebecca Kay of the University of Glasgow’s School of Social and Political Sciences agreed with the claims, and said Scotland was in a unique situation.

She explained: “It raises challenges around Scotland’s particular needs around demographic and workforce, both of those come together.

“The areas of Scotland which most need people are most likely to be the areas which don’t have jobs which meet the salary threshold, so there will be an almost perfect storm in rural areas – jobs in sectors which are being defined as low skilled, generally having depressed salary rates, and in areas which desperately need people to come, not just to work but to settle and have families.

“In that sense, [the policy] is doing all of the things that Scotland was most worried about.”

The academic also said there are certain industries which cannot replace migrant workers with local employees as easily as government ministers have suggested.

She said: “The salary level is going to rule out a huge number of jobs in care, agriculture and hospitality for example. Female migrants, like female members of the general population, tend to earn less. The jobs that women tend to be employed in are also those which are more likely not to go above the salary threshold.

“It is very clear that employers are worried, as they do not have a renewable workforce if the people they have got decide to go elsewhere.

“They can only replace them with the local population, which might be possible but there is a lot of evidence to suggest it won’t be easy. In some areas the balance between the working and non-working age population can’t be changed except by migration as there are not enough people.

“There are some places that, without migration, have no solution to this problem. While migration is not the absolute answer but without it they are totally stuck.”

Donald Macaskill, chief executive of Scottish Care, said the sector was “deeply disappointed” by the plans, and accused UK ministers of living in “cloud cuckoo land”.

He said: “At the moment we have between eight and 10 per cent of individuals working in care in Scotland who come from the European Economic Area. We are doing everything we can – together with the Scottish Government – to retain those valuable skills.

“But the fact is that this policy announcement shuts the door completely on our ability to continue to attract the brightest and the best compassionate individuals to care for our fellow Scots.”

He said Scottish Care had made considerable representations to the Home Office about the need to develop a system which works for Scotland, adding that there was “absolutely” no way care workers would meet the criteria laid down by the UK Government, with average earnings between £17,000 and £20,000.

An independent advisory group report issued last year by the Scottish Government stated that a points-based immigration policy would not only impact on the care sector, but adversely effect women who would primarily take on caring roles in the absence of care workers.

The report, entitled UK Immigration Policy After Leaving The EU: Impacts on Scotland’s Economy, Population and Society, stated that “non-migrant women would also be especially affected by labour shortages in social care, as female family members would be most likely to bear the burden of gaps in care provision.”

Marc Crothall, chief executive of the Scottish Tourism Alliance, said the policy was “the biggest threat to Scotland’s tourism industry”, adding that the plans “totally disregard the skill set and importance” of people who work in the sector.

Around 40,000 migrants work within the tourism sector in Scotland, with around 23,000 from the EU. Mr Crothall suggested a Scottish Visa may be needed to ensure they remain able to work here.

He said: “We, along with many other sector groups representing Scotland’s business economy, believe that a bespoke Scottish Visa will address the urgent and distinctive need to drive population growth, not restrict it.”

Elsewhere, Scotland’s farmers also attacked the post-Brexit immigration plans, arguing the industry would be put at risk. NFU Scotland said the proposed expansion of the Seasonal Agricultural Workers Scheme (SAWS) to 10,000 places still falls “woefully short” of the 70,000 seasonal workers required by farms across the UK.

President Andrew McCornick said: “NFU Scotland has always maintained that a UK-wide approach to immigration would be preferable.

“However, it is becoming increasingly clear that the UK Government has disregarded the strong and consistent evidence of NFU Scotland and other businesses in the UK food and drink supply chain about the type of immigration system we need to ensure productivity and output.

“The proposals published will not provide sufficient options for non-UK workers to come and work in rural Scotland. As such, Scotland-specific work permits in a UK system should be considered as a means to offer businesses in Scotland flexible tools to attract and retain manual skilled individuals within our labour market where automation and recruitment of domestic workers are not available nor viable options.

“Whilst a continued scheme for seasonal agricultural workers is welcome, it is a deep disappointment that the UK Government has ignored recommendations from the UK farming industry preferring to believe that an increased allowance of 10,000 will satisfy seasonal needs across the UK.

“Farming unions across the UK have long maintained that approximately 70,000 seasonal visas are needed after the end of free movement to ensure vacancies in the likes of soft fruit, vegetable and ornamental sectors are filled.”

Two of Scotland’s largest seafood bodies have also called for an urgent meeting with the UK Government to raise their concerns about the policies.

The Scottish Seafood Association (SSA) and the Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation highlighted the dependence of the processing sector on overseas labour and stressed the importance of ensuring that businesses were able to be fully staffed to deal with the growth in seafood volumes from January 2021.

SSA chief executive Jimmy Buchan said: “These immigration plans have the potential to severely restrict the economic boost that will flow from the UK’s exit from the Common Fisheries Policy. At the point of expansion, we need ministers to allow scope for recruitment of skilled, semi-skilled and unskilled labour as they are all vital to the viability of the sector.

“We will take our case to the UK Government in the coming days and weeks.”

Julie Hesketh-Laird, chief executive of the Scottish Salmon Producers Organisation, said: “We are concerned that these proposals, as drafted, could hinder the production and processing of Scottish salmon.

“We are seeking urgent meetings with UK Government ministers to find ways of making these plans work better for our sector.”

Politicians were quick to criticise the plans when they were first announced on Monday night, with Christine Jardine of the Liberal Democrats calling them “xenophobic”, while Nicola Sturgeon said the policy only reiterated the need for Scotland to have its own powers over migration.

The SNP said the issue was a key test for new Scottish Tory leader Jackson Carlaw, who has said he is ready to diverge from UK Government policy if it is in Scotland’s interests.

SNP MSP Tom Arthur said: “It is absolutely shameful that not a single Scottish Tory MSP or MP can bring themselves to speak out against this out-of-touch approach.

“This is Jackson Carlaw’s first test as leader of the Scottish Tories, and he’s in real danger of failing it.”

Mr Carlaw said the plans would “open a door to more skilled staff for our universities and high-tech sectors”, adding he would work with the UK Government “to ensure Scotland’s needs are appropriately met”.

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He added: “We will continue to have conversations with industry and sectoral groups from across Scotland about their needs from the immigration system, and will continue to represent their views to the Home Office.”

Last night, Home Secretary Priti Patel justified her plans, saying the Government was “no longer going to have a route for low-skilled workers to come to the UK”, but denied this would be the end of Polish builders arriving in Britain as they could get jobs with construction companies rather than being self-employed.

Ms Patel also denied that she was closing the door behind her on immigrants after her parents came to the UK from east Africa to run a shop, saying they would have qualified because of their persecution.