GERS estimates the contribution of public sector revenue raised in Scotland toward the public sector goods and services provided for the benefit of Scotland.

The estimates typically cause significant controversy.

These arguments are not going to go away, but the GERS figures present the most reasonable approximation to help us understand the nature and extent of public spending and revenue in Scotland in the latest financial year.

The GERS report shows a net fiscal balance (including a geographical share of North Sea oil) in Scotland of -£13.4bn or -7.9 per cent of Scottish GDP for 2017-18.

This compares with a UK balance of -£39.4bn or -1.9 per cent of UK GDP.

This is an improvement on the figures for 2016/17 where Scotland’s fiscal balance was -8.9 per cent.

The main reason is a slight recovery in oil revenues - £1.3bn in 2017/8 compared to £266m in 2016/17 and the low of £50m in 2015/16.

Despite this, it is highly unlikely that North Sea revenues will return to levels seen in 2010/11 and 2011/12 in the future, even if the oil price recovers to $100 per barrel, given that the basin is entering its mature stage.

The UK’s Office of Budget Responsibility predicts North Sea revenues will remain low for the foreseeable future at around £1bn.

Most of the GERS debate concentrates on the headline numbers and what they mean for the independence debate.

But from an economic statistics perspective, the more interesting angle is what the figures are telling us about the devolved budget.

In particular, there are a number of interesting revisions in the data, which have led to a weakening in Scotland’s fiscal position compared to what was thought to be the case last year, i.e. 2016/17.

These include revisions to income tax and VAT due to updated data used to estimate the Scottish share of these taxes. Income tax in 2016/17 was revised down by £451m.

This suggests that further downward revisions to previous years’ income tax take, and therefore fiscal position, may be coming in future editions of GERS.

It is important to remember that GERS takes the current constitutional settlement as given.

If the very purpose of independence is to take different choices about the type of economy and society that we live in, then a set of accounts based upon the current constitutional settlement and policy priorities will tell us little about the long-term finances of an independent Scotland.

But GERS does provide a pretty accurate picture of where Scotland is in 2018. In doing so, these numbers set the starting point for a discussion about the immediate choices and challenges that need to be addressed by those advocating new fiscal arrangements.

Professor Graeme Roy is director of the Fraser of Allander Institute at Strathclyde University