TRUST Nigel Farage to be first out of the traps for the new political season. He’s going back on the road as chairman of the hard Brexit campaign, Leave Means Leave, dedicated to exposing “Theresa the appeaser” and the elite of “cowardly Remainers” who are doing their best to frustrate the Will of the People by delaying Article 50.

I know that I could be accused of helping the Farage cult by writing about him. My excuse is that he has little appeal north of the Border and that his battlebus will almost certainly avoid touring Scotland. So why write about him at all if he is politically irrelevant? Mr Farage is relevant precisely because of the magnetic pull he is likely to exert on the UK Tory leadership, the contest for which effectively begins at the Conservative party conference in Birmingham next month.

He is also relevant because he is right about at least two things: First, that Theresa May’s Chequers plan for a “Facilitated Customs Partnership” is dead. It is regarded as treachery by most Tories and has, anyway, been rejected by Brussels. He is also right that, under Mrs May, free movement will never end.

The UK Government has looked at trying to reduce EU migration by 80 per cent and realised that it can’t be done without causing a massive headache for business. The civil service and the Migration Advisory Committee will come up with a Labour Mobility Framework, which will largely reproduce the present arrangement, under which EU workers have a right to reside for three months.

This is, of course, a good thing, especially for Scotland, where migrant workers are necessary to run the NHS and help pay for costly social care. The reality is that EU migration is already dropping like a demographic stone. Net migration from EU countries is now lower than net migration from non-EU countries in Latin America, Asia, the Middle East and so on. This may not please racially-purist members of Ukip once they catch on.

However, the Prime Minister’s imminent equivocation on free movement will fuel Brexiter paranoia about global companies forcing the UK Government to defy the people in order to keep their pool of cheap labour. The Faragistes will target pro-immigration Tory “Remaniacs”, and their supposed Soros-financed backers who are trying to keep Britain in the European single market; not just the People’s Voters like the ubiquitous Lord Adonis but anyone who isn’t a supporter of a no-deal, cliff-edge Brexit.

Aware of the dangers of Mr Farage’s influence, senior Tories like former leader William Hague and junior ones like Paul Masterton MP, are warning of “entryism”, claiming that the ‘Kippers are trying to do a Momentum and swamp dozy Tory constituency parties with eager-beaver Brexiters.

Apparently, Tory membership has grown in the last 12 months from around 120,000 to nearly 200,000, presumably due to an influx of anti-Europeans who don’t trust Mrs May.

This is why Mr Farage doesn’t need to join the Tory party. It has already largely been remade in his image. The Blue Trots are now mobilising to change the method of electing the Tory leader, which is widely seen as an establishment stitch-up. Ordinary members are only allowed to choose from the two candidates that the Parliamentary party, through the 1922 Committee, allows them to vote on. John Strafford of the Campaign for Conservative Democracy wants any candidate who wins the support of 20 MPs to be able to stand in a multi-candidate contest.

And who is the figure most likely to benefit? Alexander Boris de Pfeffel Johnson. He is the most popular figure with Brexit Tories and the most likely to gravitate to the Tory leadership if they have their way. He is also loathed by most Tory MPs, some of whom, like former Attorney General Dominic Grieve, say they would leave the party if he became leader. It may come to that.

The prospect of Mr Johnson on the threshold of Number 10 will appal many readers and would be a disaster for the Scottish Tory leader, Ruth Davidson. Mr Johnson himself may not even by too keen on the idea becoming leader. He must know that leading the Conservative party is a poisoned chalice and whoever is in charge in the coming years of transitional chaos will probably be condemned by history. But some have leadership thrust upon them. No-one else in the Tory cabinet has Mr Johnson’s recognition and popularity among Brexiters. Jacob Rees-Mogg is too conspicuously privileged and awkward. Michael Gove is a busted flush, as is David Davis, who failed as Brexit Secretary. Home Secretary Sajid Javid, is carving out a position as a Pro-Israeli Muslim tough on crime but he’s only been an MP since 2010.

Meanwhile Mr Johnson scored a major victory in the eyes of the Right this summer by refusing to apologise for his remarks about the burka. This has attracted a lot of racists to his website but it has also attracted a lot of non-racists who feel oppressed by political correctness.

It may surprise readers but in London many people still think of Mr Johnson as a liberal. When he was mayor he applauded diversity, called for an amnesty for illegal immigrants, supported Gay Pride and promoted cycling. He also admitted to having taken cannabis and cocaine when a student. Unlike the vast majority of politicians, he has a personality. He stands out, often for the wrong reasons, but he cannot be ignored.

Nothing is certain in this maelstrom of Brexit politics and it would be daft to predict who will be the next Tory leader. But there is widespread recognition that Mrs May is finished. The Tory membership loathed her Chequers plan, her leadership skills are poor and she has no loyal power base. The only reason she’s still there is to take the blame for the chaos of Brexit.

Even if she succeeds in winning a deal with Brussels in October she will be condemned as a traitor. Her departure is only a matter of time. Mr Farage is holding the clock while Mr Johnson gazes in the mirror.