PUBLIC spending in an independent Scotland would be relatively lower and debt higher than in the rest of the UK, under the SNP’s Growth Commission, an economist has said.
John McLaren of Scottish Trends said figures in the report and new forecasts pointed to budgets growing more slowly north of the border because of efforts to cut the deficit.
In addition, Scotland’s debt would be rising as a share of GDP, but falling in the UK.
The Commission report suggests Scotland would have a debt to GDP ratio of around 50 per cent, and would also pay the UK around £3bn a year for interest on historic debt.
Mr McLaren said that if the total debt was calculated - something financial markets would do before lending to Scotland - it would be around 90 per cent of GDP after a decade of independence.
Of this, 36 per cent was debt accumulated after independence, and the rest inherited.
In a new analysis, he wrote: “Taking the two points together, it is clear that the transition period envisaged will involve (i) lower public spending settlements than within the current system and (ii) a debt to GDP ratio that is rising faster than falling and an annual deficit that remains larger than for the rest of the UK.”
His report also said the Scottish Government’s recent five-year financial strategy indicated a squeeze on non-prioritised budget areas such as local government, further education, economic support and the courts, while health, police, childcare, higher education, and social security were ring-fenced.
Scottish LibDem Willie Rennie said: “This research makes quite clear that an independent Scotland would have less money to spend on public services than within the current system.
“What’s even more damning is the stark impact of the SNP’s economic mismanagement.
“Local government, further education and economic support are all in the firing line at just the moment when the Government should be investing to grow the economy."
Nicola Sturgeon has insisted the Growth Commission blueprint would not lead to austerity.
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