DOZENS of Scotland’s world-famous historical sites are at risk from climate change, experts have warned.
Historic Environment Scotland (HES) said more than half of the 352 sites it administers are now in danger from the effects of extreme weather, with 28 listed as ‘high risk’.
These include the vast Fort George fortress near Inverness, the 800-year-old Inchcolm abbey and Inchcolm island on the Firth of Forth, and the Brough of Birsay, a Pictish and Viking-settled island in Orkney’s world heritage site.
READ MORE: Built to hold off an army, but weather is a bigger threat
But even popular sites such as Edinburgh Castle and the neolithic village of Skara Brae on Orkney will have to be protected from increasingly unpredictable weather.
Problems identified in the HES Climate Change Risk Assessment include flooding, coastal erosion, landslides and increased rainfall causing accelerated decay.
The risk assessment is the first of its kind to combine climatic data from the Scottish Environment Protection Agency, geological information from the British Geological Survey, and the agency’s own site surveys to draw up a detailed assessment of every site.
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It grades sites according to their likelihood of being damaged by extreme weather, using a colour-coded grading system from green to red to indicate the level of danger.
Edinburgh castle is rated red because of the risk from landslides and the possible collapse of the rocky outcrops on which it is built.
The world-famous structure is also said to be at risk from groundwater flooding, although in both cases the danger drops to amber in the final assessment because it is permanently staffed, meaning that some mitigation effort is in place.
The research draws on forecasts from Sepa that sea levels around Scotland will increase by between 6.5inches (16.5cm) and 11inches (28 cm) by 2050, while average temperatures will rise by 2.8C in summer and 2.2C in winter.
During the same time frame the amount of rainfall will increase by 16 per cent in winter and fall by 13 per cent in summer, leading to a greater risk of forest and grassland fires near some sites.
The report warns: “Many of our properties in care are situated in landscapes that are vulnerable to natural hazards. They may also be in ruinous condition and may not have been wind and water-tight for hundreds of years.
“Although these properties are often by their very nature resilient to threats like flooding, climate change is altering the environmental parameters in which they function, meaning that some sites are exposed to new hazards or increased risk from existing hazards.”
Ewan Hyslop, Head of Technical Research and Science at HES, said: “Climate change poses a number of very real threats to Scotland’s historic environment, from an increased frequency of extreme and unpredictable weather events to rising sea-levels.
“This report places Scotland at the forefront of the global challenge to tackle Climate Change, as we lead the way in the adaptation of the historic environment by working with partners to share expertise and guidance with the wider sector to enhance resilience against current and future changes to our climate.
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The report follows the announcement in January 2017 of a £6.6m investment boost to support conservation work, repairs and upgrade of visitor facilities at sites across the HES estate.
Cabinet Secretary for Culture, Tourism and External Affairs, Fiona Hyslop, said: “This report is important because it’s vital that we understand the impact that climate change will have on these sites, and what steps we can take to protect them for future generations.”
Made to hold off an army, now at the mercy of the elements
BUILT in the wake of the Battle of Culloden to provide a permanent presence for government troops in the rebellious highlands, Fort George is said to be the finest example of 18th century military engineering in the British Isles.
Jutting out into the Moray Firth, the army base was built on a monumental scale and designed to be impregnable to an attacking army.
Using the latest technology of the time, it is laid out in such a way as any approaching force is covered by heavy guns with every angle said to be open to cannon fire from the defenders.
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More than two-decades in the making, the fort was completed long after the Jacobite insurrection had fizzled out, yet remains a powerful symbol to any would-be rebels and became a recruiting base and training camp for the rapidly expanding British Army.
It remains in army hands today, and is currently the home of the Black Watch 3rd Battalion, The Royal Regiment of Scotland.
Yet despite being impregnable to man-made attack, the fort is losing its battle with the elements and faces a tough fight in the coming decades.
The HES climate change assessment rates the building at very high risk from coastal erosion, at high risk from groundwater flooding and coastal flooding, and at medium risk it will slide into the sea as the soil its walls rest on collapse. .
Herald View: We must protect our heritage from climate change
It's very position on the shore is part of the danger - and there are signs the coastal defences are being washed away by seawater.
Rock armour has been installed on the exposed, north-facing side, in a
project carried out in partnership with the Army, to hold back the tide up the fort but heritage bosses will have to remain vigilant.
Sea levels are predicted to rise by half a metre in the coming decades, possibly submerging part of the forts walls.
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