SCOTLAND’S elderly population is set to grow by almost a third over the next quarter century, putting ever greater strain on pensions, the NHS and social care services.
The latest annual report from the Registrar General for Scotland forecasts the number of people of pensionable age will increase by 28 per cent by 2039.
The 65-74 group is expected to grow from 0.54million to 0.68m, while the over-75s are projected to see an 85 per cent surge to 0.8m.
However the number of people of working age, whose taxes are needed to help pay for services for the elderly, will increase by just one per cent.
Across the UK as a whole, the number of pensioners will grow by 33 per cent over the same period, but the number of working age people will rise by 11 per cent.
It means that by 2039, there will be 397 pensioners for every 1000 working-age people in Scotland, but at UK level it will be just 370 per 1000.
Registrar General Tim Ellis said: “This has implications for funding allocations, tax revenues, pensions, education, health and social care provision.”
Mr Ellis’s report also underlined the importance of immigration, the bulk of it from outside the UK, to Scotland’s population growth, given deaths outnumber births.
The projected one per cent increase in working age people is based on migration from the EU remaining broadly as it is at present.
If it fell to zero after Brexit, Scotland’s working age population would shrink by three per cent.
“Continued inward migration can help Scotland support its growing number of older people maintain a healthy working age population and boost population growth,” the report said.
Tory health spokesman Miles Briggs said the SNP Government needed to wake up to the implications of an ageing population and its impact on public services.
The report also showed deaths from dementia had recently overtaken those from strokes.
Hospitals across the country were already struggling to cope with patients whose conditions were associated with greater longevity, and ministers must plan now for the future, he said.
He said: “Scotland’s population has been ageing for some time, but this is a trend that’s been utterly neglected by the SNP.
“We can already see the strain this Scottish Government complacency has put on the NHS.
“Unless we see swift action now, the problems for hospital staff and patients are only going to get worse in the years ahead.
“The report is quite clear that there’s going to be a heavily increasing elderly population north of the border, who risk being served by an NHS which won’t be remotely equipped to provide the help they need.”
Scottish Labour deputy Alex Rowley added: “These demographic projections show that public services will come under increasing strain in coming years as the increase in pensioners rapidly out-paces the increase in working age people. We need to be honest about how we fund public services – Labour would use the tax powers of the Scottish Parliament to abandon austerity and give our public services the investment they need.”
SNP Brexit minister Michael Russell said: “We absolutely need to ensure we grow our working age population to support our economy and society now and in the future, when we expect more people to live longer beyond retirement.
"Along with our continued work to boost jobs and opportunities these figures clearly underline the key role migration has to play.
“Scotland as a whole benefits from an inward flow of people - boosting growth in our economy and diversity in our communities.
"A hard Brexit, with restrictions on free movement, would be major threat to our economy, and the contribution made by people from across Europe and further afield. Our position to remain within the single market is clear, and there is wide support for Scotland to have responsibility for our own immigration policy.”
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