NICOLA Sturgeon has ruled out a second independence referendum in 2017 just a week after a Herald poll showed the overwhelming majority of Scots were opposed to the idea.
The First Minister said there would not be a vote this year, but said a referendum remained on the table in the longer term “to make sure Scotland is not driven off a hard Brexit cliff edge".
She told STV: “There is not going to be an independence referendum in 2017, I don't think there is anybody who thinks that is the case.”
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A BMG survey for the Herald last week found 61 per cent of people were against another vote this year on the constitution, including 27 per cent of SNP supporters.
Other polls show support for independence remains stuck at 45 per cent, as in 2014, despite the shock of Brexit.
The Scottish Government is currently consulting on a draft referendum bill.
If Ms Sturgeon had wanted to hold a referendum this year, it would have meant rushing the bill through Holyrood, as it is currently due to take until 2018 to become law.
The First Minister has threatened to hold a referendum if Scotland is forced out the EU single market in a hard Brexit, and last month published a 62-page blueprint on how this might be done with the cooperation of the UK and other EU states.
But in a blow to the proposal, Alex Salmond has said in a new magazine interview that this will be “very difficult” to achieve.
The former First Minister told Politics First it was “technically” possible Ms Sturgeon could get her “red lines” on Europe, but suggested Theresa May would choose immigration control over the single market, and prioritise the car industry and the City in Brexit talks over Scotland.
He said: “If Scotland’s wishes are not respected, then I am certain that Nicola Sturgeon will hold an independence referendum in about two years’ time... before Brexit takes effect.”
Professor John Curtice of Strathclyde University’s Politics Department suggested Ms Sturgeon had ruled out a referendum in 2017 partly because the polls suggested she might lose and because the SNP had yet to build a fresh economic case for leaving the UK.
Delay could also cool demands for a quick vote from within the wider Yes movement, he said.
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An activist conference on preparing for the next referendum is being held in Glasgow on Saturday.
He said: “It’s a difficult balancing act. She needs to persuade Theresa May that she could pull the trigger but has to dissuade her own troops from presuming that she will pull it.
“It’s no secret that she would prefer to get a bargain than be forced to go for independence.
“But the best guess at the moment is that she will have end up having to choose whether to go for it or not, unless Brexit ends up a lot softer than we are anticipating so far.”
He said ruling out a vote in 2017 still left the First Minister able to advance her bill or even announce a date for a referendum, potentially spring 2018.
Ms Sturgeon’s opponents accused her of sending mixed messages and urged her to rule out a referendum altogether.
After the Brexit vote in June, the First Minister said a referendum was “highly likely”, but last week offered to park the issue for “the timescale of Brexit” in a bid to secure a bespoke Scottish deal.
Then on Sunday she struck a more bellicose tone, and insisted she wasn't bluffing about a referendum.
Scottish Tory leader Ruth Davidson said ruling out a vote in 2017 was "an empty gesture from a First Minister who is leaving Scotland in limbo".
She said: "If she's serious about allowing Scotland to move on from constitutional navel-gazing, she should ditch her draft referendum bill immediately.”
Scottish Labour deputy Alex Rowley said: “This doesn't come close to ending the uncertainty. The First Minister should rule out forcing another independence referendum on the people of Scotland altogether, not just for the next twelve months.”
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Scottish LibDem leader Willie Rennie added: “We have enough uncertainty with Brexit, we don’t need more with independence.”
But Scottish Green leader Patrick Harvie said even though there would be no referendum in 2017, the bill for one “must be progressed to give Holyrood the option” later.
He said: “This cannot be a quiet time for supporters of independence. Work must begin now to build support and strengthen our case. We must be ready to offer concrete answers to those No voters who are considering making the journey to Yes.”
Theresa May will give a keynote speech on the Union and her "ambitions to build a more united country" in the next few weeks.
A Downing Street spokesperson said: “The Prime Minister and the Government's position on this issue has long been clear, which is that there was a referendum in 2014 that was fair, legal and decisive and it should be respected. The focus in 2017 should be on how the component parts of the United Kingdom, the nations, come together to work to secure the best outcome for the UK as we leave the EU."
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