A SURGE in support for independence in the aftermath of the Brexit vote has reversed in the weeks following the UK's decision to quit the EU, a new opinion poll has suggested.
The YouGov survey, carried out four weeks after Scotland was put on course to be taken out of the bloc against the wishes of a majority of its voters, found 47 per cent would back Yes and 53 per cent No if an independence vote was held tomorrow.
It also found that 55 per cent would rather remain in a UK which is not in the EU, compared to 45 per cent who would prefer to live in an independent Scotland that retained membership, when undecided respondents are excluded.
The result suggests that an increase in support for independence in the days following the EU referendum, when other pollsters suggested that a narrow majority favoured leaving the UK, has already tailed off.
Joe Twyman, YouGov’s Head of Political and Social Research, said inevitable claims that the high water mark in support for independence has passed may be premature, with the full consequences of the UK quitting the EU yet to emerge.
However, he added: "In the short-term at least, the data suggests the vote to leave the EU has not boosted the cause of Scottish independence."
Nicola Sturgeon has said a new independence vote is "highly likely", with the SNP claiming a mandate to hold a new referendum after Brexit against Scotland's wishes was highlighted as a trigger in its manifesto for the Holyrood election. The result last month saw 62 per cent of Scots vote to Remain, but Leave win a narrow majority UK-wide.
Angus Robertson, the SNP’s Westminster leader, recently claimed that Scotland is on “the brink of independence”.
The First Minister is also known to be reticent about calling a new vote on leaving the UK unless she is convinced she can win it, with SNP sources previously indicating they would like to see sustained support of 60 per cent before a repeat referendum.
Ms Sturgeon is exploring options for maintaining both EU and UK membership, but has insisted independence will remain an option if she cannot secure what she sees as Scotland's interests, including access to the single market.
However, 54 per cent told YouGov they would prefer to stay in the UK and not have a place the single market, compared to 46 per cent who would prefer independence if it meant keeping it, excluding don't knows.
The SNP said the poll showed No voters are reconsidering independence, and pointed to rise in support - by one per cent - since the last time YouGov polled on independence at the start of May.
The party's business convenor, Derek Mackay, said: "It is little wonder that more and more people are seeing independence as the option that offers the greatest certainty and stability."
However, UK Government minister Andrew Dunlop said the poll showed a majority "don’t want another divisive constitutional debate."
YouGov interviewed 1,006 adults in Scotland between 20 and 25 July.
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