STRONG growth of housebuilding activity will enable Scotland's construction sector to expand steadily over the next five years, with thousands of new tradespeople required to replace those retiring, an industry report has concluded.
The Construction Industry Training Board highlighted the projection in the report, published today, that the sector in Scotland would achieve average annual growth in output of 1.1 per cent during the period from 2015 to 2019. This is adrift of the projected average annual rate of expansion of 2.9 per cent over the same period for the UK.
The CITB noted that some big infrastructure projects, such as the Forth Replacement Crossing, were due to come to an end during the new five-year forecast period.
According to the Construction Skills Network Report, the industry in Scotland will require an average of 5700 new tradespeople annually, not including apprentices, to replace those who are retiring and as a result of the projected growth in output.
Phil Ford, CITB's strategic partnerships director for Scotland, said that the construction industry workforce north of the Border was projected to rise from about 220,730 to 222,040 during the five-year forecast period.
The average annual rate of growth projected between 2015 and 2019 in Scotland, as well as being less than half of the UK forecast, marks a significant slowdown from estimated expansion of seven per cent in the construction industry north of the Border in 2014.
It is also sharply lower than the average annual growth of two per cent achieved in the Scottish construction industry in the last five years.
CITB noted that 2014 had been the second consecutive year of expansion for the construction industry north of the Border.
Mr Ford was upbeat about the outlook for the Scottish construction industry in spite of the projected slowdown in growth.
He said: "I think, when you look at it overall, we have some very large projects which are putting the figures up. Some of them will come to an end."
Noting that the Scottish construction sector growth forecasts were on the "pessimistic side" and the future possibility of further new infrastructure projects, Mr Ford added: "The good news is there is plenty of work in the short term, and the apprentice numbers are on the up."
CITB said it had attracted 1,434 new apprentices to the construction industry in Scotland in 2014 - a four-year high. The corresponding figure for 2013 was about 1,300.
It also noted, in addition to these numbers, the restarting of employment in the industry last year for 171 apprentices made redundant.
Mr Ford noted that, while infrastructure output was expected to decline over the five-year forecast period, it would still by 2019 be higher than in any year between 1990 and 2012 in real terms.
CITB said that new projects in the pipeline included the new £200m Dumfries & Galloway Royal Infirmary, a campus for City of Glasgow College, a bioscience quarter for the University of Edinburgh costing £32m, and the £48.5m Wick Community Campus.
CITB said that, within the construction sector in Scotland, output growth was expected to be strongest in private housing, with expansion projected at an average annual rate of 5.4 per cent.
However, it highlighted the fact that this projection came on the back of a period of decline in activity in the Scottish private housing construction sub-sector between 2005 and 2013.
CITB cited major housing projects planned in north-east Scotland.
It pointed to "large and long-term regeneration projects" at Chapelhall near Aberdeen and Grandhome near Bridge of Don, which both include substantial housing elements.
Meanwhile, official figures published yesterday by the Scottish Government show that, in nominal terms without adjustment for inflation, the value of Scotland's international exports, excluding oil and gas, hit an all-time of £27.9 billion in 2013. This was up by 7.2 per cent or £1.9 billion on 2012.
Anne MacColl, chief executive of taxpayer-funded export promotion agency Scottish Development International, said: "Despite mixed rates of economic growth and recovery in global markets, we continue to grow our exports in both mature and emerging economies, with more and more Scottish businesses waking up to the international opportunity."
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