THE Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee signalled it was still minded to cut UK base rates even further in November, as it held them at 0.25 per cent yesterday, writes Ian McConnell.
Read More: Ian McConnell: So who actually believes departing Cameron rescued UK economy?
An announcement from the Bank noted “the committee’s view of the contours of the economic outlook following the EU referendum had not changed” since last month.
Looking forward to its November economic forecasting round, the Bank said: “If, in light of that full updated assessment, the outlook at that time is judged to be broadly consistent with the August inflation report projections, a majority of members expect to support a further cut in Bank Rate to its effective lower bound at one of the MPC’s forthcoming meetings during the course of this year. The MPC currently judges this bound to be close to, but a little above, zero.”
The MPC cut UK base rates by a quarter-point to a fresh record low of 0.25 per cent in August in the wake of the June 23 Brexit vote. Economists are predicting a cut to 0.1 per cent in November.
Paul Hollingsworth, at consultancy Capital Economics, said: “While the economy does appear to have fared
relatively well in the immediate aftermath of the vote, there are reasons to think some of the slowdown
is yet to come.
“For example, the labour market tends to lag GDP (gross domestic product) growth, so it is too soon to claim that the jobs market has shrugged off the Brexit vote. In addition, we have no hard evidence and only limited survey evidence on firms’ investment decisions, and that is the area of the economy that we, and the Bank of England, are most bearish about.”
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